Wishful thinking and real problems: Small modular reactors, planning constraints, and nuclear power in Jordan
Introduction
Influential sections of Jordan's policy-making elite have long desired acquiring nuclear power. Yet, they have been hampered by many constraints, the most important of which are Jordan's small installed electrical capacity and the country's relatively low financial resources.1 If one goes by some of the claims of vendors of small modular reactors (SMRs), these designs will allow Jordan to overcome these constraints and install nuclear power at lower cost.
Small Modular Reactors have for long been considered a key element needed to expand nuclear power in developing countries (Heising-Goodman, 1981, Ingersoll, 2009, Vujić et al., 2012, Nian and Bauly, 2014, Abdulla and Morgan, 2015). Among the characteristics of SMRs that make it specially attractive to developing countries are the suitability of the lower power levels to electrical grids with smaller capacity and the expectation that these would be more affordable even in the face of financial limitations (Kessides and Kuznetsov, 2012, Hidayatullah et al., 2015).2
Jordan has been listed as a potential customer for SMRs and it appears that Jordanian policymakers certainly do know of SMRs and their advantages. Yet they are pursuing the purchase of two large Russian reactors that would be expensive and destabilize Jordan's electricity grid. In other words, Jordan belies the expectation that small developing countries would prefer SMRs.
This case study also relates to a substantial literature concerning policy making in nuclear energy. Several scholars approach the question of whether or not countries can or should acquire nuclear power by examining various techno-economic considerations (Deutch et al., 2003, Jewell, 2011). As described later, a similar approach has also been adopted in evaluating the suitability of small modular reactors (ITA, 2011; IAEA, 2013a; Locatelli et al., 2013, Black et al., 2015). However, there is also much evidence that decisions about nuclear reactors are driven by a range of social and political factors (Jasper, 1990, Byrne and Hoffman, 1996, Amir, 2010, Ramana and Saikawa, 2011, Sovacool and Valentine, 2012, Mathai, 2013). As we discuss below, Jordan's decisions seem to support this latter approach to understanding policy making.
This paper explores reasons for Jordan's decision to purchase a large reactor and the likely consequences of these factors for the SMR market elsewhere as well as the implications of the introduction of large nuclear reactors for Jordan's future electricity supply. It begins with section outlining our methodology and a brief history of Jordan's interest in nuclear power. Then it explores Jordan's interest in SMRs as well as interest in Jordan as a potential market for SMRs by proponents of these designs. This is followed by a history of the process used by Jordan to select its first nuclear reactor vendor and the multiple considerations that seem to have played a part in the decision to go with the Russian reactor design. This is followed by two sections on the challenges associated with a large reactor design as well as small reactors. The paper concludes with exploring the implications for Jordan's energy policy and government policies in countries developing small modular reactors.
Section snippets
Method
The paper is based on a combination of historical and discourse analysis, analysis of data from the World Bank and the U.S. Department of Energy, physics based calculations of water requirements, and a technical examination of the characteristics of different kinds of reactors and Jordan's electricity grid. The historical and discourse analysis used reports from the nuclear trade press, official government statements, articles in the popular newspapers and magazines, and unstructured
History of Jordan's interest in nuclear power
Jordan has been interested in acquiring nuclear power plants for decades. In 1955, a Jordanian representative, K. Tukan, went to the first International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in Geneva, Switzerland to talk about the electrical power needs of Jordan (Tukan, 1955). A little over a decade later, Admiral Lewis Strauss, then a former Chairman of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, proposed a plan to construct a nuclear desalination plant (then called desalting plant) in
Jordan and SMRs
In 2007, Khaled Toukan, who was to become the JAEC chairman, announced that Jordan was trying to decide by 2010 between a limited-scale nuclear power infrastructure based on small and medium-sized reactors, and large reactors that would transform its entire electricity production infrastructure away from fossil fuel consumption (Hibbs, 2007). Speaking at the World Nuclear Association’s annual symposium, Mohamed ElBaradei, then Director General of IAEA, called upon major vendors to propose
The large reactor option
At the same time as Jordan expressed interest in SMRs, JAEC was negotiating with Russia to purchase a large light water reactor (LWR). This followed several years of discussions with various vendors offering large LWRs. When the time came, though, instead of issuing an open tender, Jordan invited reactor vendors to offer proposals and carried out what was described as a “competitive dialog” by some vendors (MacLachlan and Freebairn, 2010). The “competitive dialog” resulted in multiple
Challenges associated with a large reactor
Although Russia is in the process of developing SMRs, its main offerings on the reactor market today are of the VVER design. The multiple arguments for and against this purchase are listed in Table 1.
The main challenge associated with this proposed import of a Russian reactor in the case of Jordan is that there is a severe mismatch between the power output of the VVER, roughly 1000 MW or more, and the size of Jordan's electricity grid (Thomas, 2013, p. 51–52). A plant with a large power output
Challenges associated with SMRs
While there is a better match between Jordan's electricity grid and demand characteristics and the smaller power output of SMRs, there are several other challenges that would have to be faced. These are summarized in Table 2.
Common but different challenges: siting and cooling
Two other challenges confronting SMRs are important: public attitudes near potential construction sites and obtaining water to cool reactors. Both of these challenges are generic to nuclear power but are a particular problem for SMRs. To generate the same amount of electricity, many more SMRs have to be constructed as compared to large reactors, thereby implying the potential need for multiple sites where reactors would be constructed (or many reactors at a single site, which is a challenge for
Conclusion and policy implications
On paper, Jordan is a textbook case for SMRs. It has a small electricity grid and limited financial resources. It is also facing a growing mismatch between electricity supply and demand. Several nuclear vendor countries, including the United States, view Jordan as a potential market for SMRs. And, yet, when it came time to finalize the acquisition of a specific nuclear reactor design, Jordan appears to have decided on purchasing two large LWRs from Russia. Receiving help with financing the
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Marianne Nari Fisher, Hisham Khatib, and Zia Mian for useful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft. This work was supported in part by a Grant from the MacArthur Foundation (Project Grant No. 11-99722-000-INP).
References (109)
Economic risks of Jordan's nuclear program
Energy Sustain. Dev.
(2015)- et al.
Too costly to matter: economics of nuclear Power for Saudi Arabia
Energy
(2014) - et al.
An assessment of the potential benefits from integrated electricity capacity planning in the northern Middle East region
Energy
(2006) - et al.
Assessment of wind-generation potentiality in Jordan using the site effectiveness approach
Energy
(2003) - et al.
Carbon free energy development and the role of small modular reactors: a review and decision framework for deployment in developing countries. Renewable and sustainable
Energy Rev.
(2015) - et al.
Economic features of integral, modular, small-to-medium size reactors
Prog. Nucl. Energy
(2010) The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: a case of negative learning by doing
Energy Policy
(2010)Supply of appropriate nuclear technology for the developing world: small Power reactors for electricity generation
Appl. Energy
(1981)- et al.
Design and technology development for small modular reactors – safety expectations, prospects and impediments of their deployment
Prog. Nucl. Energy
(2015) Deliberately small reactors and the second nuclear era
Prog. Nucl. Energy
(2009)
Ready for nuclear energy?: an assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear Power programs
Energy Policy
A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for US nuclear plants, 1970–2005
Energy Policy
Nuclear power developments: could small modular reactor power plants be a “Game Changer”? – the ASEAN perspective
Energy Procedia
Choosing a standard reactor: international competition and domestic politics in Chinese nuclear policy
Energy
Licensing small modular reactors
Energy
Nuclear power for the developing world
Issues Sci. Technol.
Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
Prospects for Nuclear Power in the GCC
Risk perception in a developing country: the case of Jordan
Int. Bus. Res.
The state and the reactor: nuclear politics in post-suharto Indonesia
Indonesia
Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy
Environ. Sci. Technol.
Governing the Atom: The Politics of Risk, Energy and Environmental Policy
The Future of Nuclear Power: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study
Middle eastern nuclear growth expected, but obstacles remain
Nucleon. Week
Jordan reactor siting study to be done in 2009, JAEC says
Nucleon. Week
South Korea PWR bid to Jordan getting Korean diplomatic support
Nucleon. Week
Kepco may Agree to seismic upgrade of 1000-MW PWRs it offers
Nucleon. Week
US, Jordan nearing completion of nuclear pact, official says
Nucleon. Week
Cited by (28)
Assessing the nuclear weapons proliferation risks in nuclear energy newcomer countries: The case of small modular reactors
2024, Nuclear Engineering and TechnologyInvesting into third generation nuclear power plants - Review of recent trends and analysis of future investments using Monte Carlo Simulation
2021, Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsDeeds not words: Barriers and remedies for Small Modular nuclear Reactors
2020, EnergyCitation Excerpt :Economics of operations. Availability of cheaper and/or less capital intensive alternative technologies to generate electricity and the wholesale price of electricity emerged as two potential elements hindering SMR construction [40]. In this regard, the O&M costs are also a key parameter, considering that several reactors in the USA have been closed because the electricity price was so low that did not even cover the operating and upgrading costs [48].
Economics and finance of Small Modular Reactors: A systematic review and research agenda
2020, Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsCitation Excerpt :argue the same considerations in Ghana. Furthermore, [75] argue that there is no reason to believe that SMR characteristics would increase the demand for NPPs. [93] highlight that SMRs increase the need for construction sites considering that more SMRs are needed to obtain the same power of a LR.