Original Research Papers
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept
Authors:
- Renate HagedornEmail Renate Hagedorn
- Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
- T. N. Palmer
Abstract
The DEMETER multi-model ensemble system is used to investigate the rationale behind the multi-model concept. A comprehensive documentation of the differences in the single and multi-model performance in the DEMETER hindcast data set is given. Both deterministic and probabilistic diagnostics are used and a variety of analyses demonstrate the improvements achieved by using multi-model instead of single-model ensembles. In order to understand the reason behind the multi-model superiority, basic scenarios describing how the multi-model approach can improve over singlemodel skill are discussed. It is demonstrated that multi-model superiority is caused not only by error compensation but in particular by its greater consistency and reliability.
- Year: 2005
- Volume: 57 Issue: 3
- Page/Article: 219–233
- DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14657
- Submitted on 6 Apr 2004
- Accepted on 24 Sep 2004
- Published on 1 Jan 2005
- Peer Reviewed