Innovation and imitation effects' dynamics in technology adoption

The purpose of this paper is to investigate longitudinal patterns of ICT and non‐ICT products' adoption over life cycles.

The Bass diffusion model is used to discern distinctive changes in users' adoption behavior due to the innovation and the imitation effects.

The innovation effect is more influential for innovators and opinion leaders than it is for all adopters. However, it diminishes as time passes. Conversely, the imitation effect becomes a more powerful factor for the early majority, late majority and laggards. The imitation effect in the ICT industry is greater than that in the non‐ICT industry, revealing the high network effect in ICT diffusion.

Mobile phones are not the representative of all ICTs as the automobiles also do not represent all utility products. More ICT and conventional products need to be included and compared for greater generalization of the results from different countries.

By identifying the strong innovation effect of a new product at the early stage of its adoption, and the social network effect in the acceleration of the adoption speed through massive numbers of imitating consumers, this research reveals the ever shrinking product life cycle and therefore the importance of continuous disruptive innovation as a competitive strategy for organizations.

The paper provides new theoretical insights into the technology adoption research by using a mathematical modeling methodology using real data. The study provides new insights into the strategic implications of innovation and imitation effects for technology service providers.