Abstract
To evaluate the influences of air temperature change on ski activities, thechanges in the numbers of skiers visiting seven ski areas in Japan were predicted in conjunction with climate change. First, having built a model forpredicting snow depth based on the budgets of water and heat using the air temperature and precipitation data collected nationwide, we demonstrated goodagreement between the predicted and observed snow depths (p < 0.01 and the ratios for more than 81% cases ranged from 0.5 to 2). Second, the relationshipbetween the number of skiers and the depth of snow at one of the seven ski areaswas analyzed statistically on a daily basis. In addition, we did the same on amonthly basis at six other ski areas and compared the observed and predictednumbers of skiers (p < 0.01 and the ratios for more than 94% cases ranged from 0.5 to 2). Using this model and the relationship between daily snow depth andnumber of skiers, the changes in skier numbers in the seven ski areas werepredicted for several scenarios with respect to air temperature changes; e.g. a more than 30% drop in visiting skiers was forecast in almost all ski areas in Japan except northern region (Hokkaido) and/or high altitude regions (center of the Main Island) under the condition of a 3 °C increase in air temperature. The vulnerability of the ski industry and its adaptationto climate change are discussed.
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Fukushima, T., Kureha, M., Ozaki, N. et al. Influences of air temperature change on leisure industries – case study on ski activities –. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 7, 173–189 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022803405470
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022803405470