Introduction

The challenging problems of the Aral Sea coastal region, which have arisen following striking changes in ecological conditions in the area, now seem to have been the logical result of the ill-considered planning of anthropogenic impacts on natural resources and human habitat.

A comprehensive analysis of the process of development of current ecological conditions (and its impacts on the way of life and on public health) is of interest from both a scientific and a practical point of view. In this regard the Aral Sea coastal region is an appropriate subject of research, because the pronounced and ecologically important natural processes and phenomena observed here were accompanied by sharp, adverse changes in the region's medical and demographic conditions.

The existence of ‘green’ and ‘brown’ ecological problems (Vogel, 1994), most often the result of creeping environmental changes (i.e., slowly changing, incremental, cumulative processes), is fairly obvious:

It is unclear, however, on what time scales the initially unmonitored processes are altered. To what extent and with what degree of degradation (or transformation) of the environment are they connected? Do these processes reach identifiable threshold values? Is it possible to change negative patterns and trends once we begin to speak of crisis? Perhaps we can establish thresholds (i.e., levels) of ecological change by assessing the character and importance of related processes.