Elsevier

Energy

Volume 79, 1 January 2015, Pages 385-397
Energy

Estimating the cost of energy access: The case of the village of Suro Craic in Timor Leste

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.025Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Increasing target levels of electricity access results in considerably higher costs.

  • Different target levels of energy access results in different least cost energy solutions.

  • Off grid electrification can play a key role in providing limited amounts of electricity.

  • Grid electrification becomes cost competitive at higher energy demands.

Abstract

Energy access targets at national, sub-national, and local levels, are often not specified in great detail – and tend to focus on supply. Another approach to better inform policy and investment might benefit from an indicator that focuses on the services derived from electricity access. To provide support for decision-making, this research investigates the costs of reaching different levels of energy access in rural areas, with a case study of a village in the Ainaro district of Timor Leste. Utilizing the multi-tier definition of energy access proposed in the World Bank's “Global Tracking Framework” for Sustainable Energy for All, we present results both on the cost difference of achieving different tiers of energy access, and on the comparison among selected electrification and cooking options. Results show that in the period 2010–2030 achieving the highest tier of electricity access could be as much as seventy-five times more costly than achieving the lowest one. In addition moving across tiers, least cost solutions shift from stand-alone to mini-grid and finally grid connected options as electricity access increases. Regarding cooking, moving from open fires to some of the more modern solutions has the potential to reduce overall costs over the same period.

Introduction

Since the UN general assembly declared 2012 as the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for All”, the global effort has been re-invigorated to improve access to energy services in the developing world. The related SE4All (Sustainable Energy for All) initiative seeks to achieve universal access to electricity and safe household fuels, a doubled rate of improvement of energy efficiency, and a doubled share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030 [1]. Aligned with the SE4All goals, governments have, in many cases, set their access targets ambitiously. We focus on a country case study, Timor Leste, in order to better help understand the details of achieving these bold goals.

Timor Leste (or East Timor) is a country in Southeast Asia, with approximately 1.1 million inhabitants. Timor Leste ranks 134 of 186 countries in the Human Development Index [2]. Approximately 70% its population lives in rural areas [3]. Among other infrastructural deficits, the supply of modern energy to rural areas is minimal [4]. Only approximately 20% of Timorese people have access to a grid connection, only 10% in rural areas [5] and, even where the connection is available, the supply of electricity from the grid has frequent service interruptions, and connection can be limited to as little as 5 h a day [6]. The electricity supply of rural Timor Leste now consists of 58 isolated grids (11 on district level and 47 on sub-district level) equipped with diesel generators, although some not operational due to lack of maintenance, fuel or as a consequence of vandalism [4]. Timor Leste has rich reserves of crude oil and natural gas off its coast that are now being internationally exploited – but does not have significant refining capability. Thus, the country relies entirely on imported diesel, gasoline, LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas) and kerosene at global market prices to meet its fossil fuel requirements [4]. The electricity supply system is dominated by diesel generators and is not competitively structured, resulting in an energy cost higher than in other countries of the region [4]. It is estimated that for EdTL (Electricidade De Timor Leste - the national Utility), the cost of electricity production is estimated to be between $US 0.27 and 0.40 per kWh [5], [7]. However, households are charged a tariff of only $0.12 per kWh or $2.40 per month for a household consuming about 20 kW-hours, the rest of the costs being subsidized [5]. In addition, over 90% all households use fuel wood as their main cooking fuel (agricultural residues, charcoal, kerosene, and electricity constitute the balance) [5]. Having most of its population living in rural areas of the country, with no access to modern energy services, Timor Leste represents a good case study for analyzing the dynamics and costs of moving among different tiers of energy access.

Timor Leste, from the modest starting point described above, have as official goal of the government to achieve 80% electrification by 2025 [5]. In this context, there is no universally agreed-upon definition of energy access [1]. There are increasing discussions within the international community about establishing an international target for universal access to modern energy services [8]. In cases like East Timor, the government sets a target percentage of population to be provided with energy access, but lacks a precise specification of what level of energy access is required as well as which services it should consider. This makes it difficult to estimate costs for reaching such governmental targets. To fill this gap, a number of organizations have developed specific frameworks. According to [8] and [1], these frameworks can be divided into three categories. The first contains uni-dimensional indicators and set/dashboards of indicators (such as [9], [10], [11], [12]) presenting single and easily interpretable metrics. Since they are disaggregated, these can present a clear message regarding single parameter situations. However, it may be difficult to interpret these for dynamics involving a number of parameters (such as energy access). The second category, composite indexes (such as [13], [14]), are single numerals calculated from a number of variables. They present the advantage of supporting both complex trend representation and performance benchmarking. However, because they combine variables these indexes have the drawback of reducing the information to a single measure, which causes a certain loss of granularity in the final information. A hybrid approach, where the single indicators composing the composite indexes are reported along with their values, could be an advantage. Finally multi-tier approaches (such as [11], [15]), relate the multifaceted nature of energy access to a pre-defined scale that takes into account all the parameters considered in the multi-tier approach.

Although no predominant energy access metric is currently adopted among inter-governmental agencies and governments, this research adopts the multi-tier categorization of Energy Access proposed by the World Bank's Global Tracking Framework for SE4ALL (see Section 1.2). This metric was chosen for the research, as a number of efforts are ongoing to promote its widespread use for country tracking in the Sustainable Energy for All Framework. This results in a number of household surveys, household connection data obtained from utilities, or residential consumption information at the country level, being made available in the format of the multi-tier framework. This can present an advantage compared to other existing metrics, where relevant data paucity is an issue.

Starting from the WB (World Bank) Multi-Tier framework, this research presents estimates of the cost difference of reaching different tiers of electrification for a representative rural village in Timor Leste. This cost evaluation is coupled with the comparison of promising electrification options for the region, considering stand-alone, mini-grid and grid options. To the knowledge of the authors, this paper presents the first research that connects the WB Multi-Tier framework for measuring energy access, to the costs that are associated to moving across tiers. Doing so this research gives a contribution to the development of the framework.

The village of Suro Craic (Fig. 1) was chosen for this case study as characteristically illustrative and the site has relatively rich data availability. Suro Craic is medium size rural village of approx. 350 households, in the district of Ainaro [16] in the southwest part of the country. It is one of the least developed districts in Timor Leste, and thus useful for exploring potential movement through all six “electrification tiers” [17]. The village has no grid connection. The closest grid substation is in Cassa, approx. 10 km South of Suro Craic.

According to recent energy access surveys conducted for Suro Craic and for the Ainaro Region [6] during 2011 the electrical appliances present in the village were mobile phones (in 73% of the households), torches or lamps (in 54% of the households), radios (in 26% of the households), and TVs or music players (in 5% of the households). These appliances are powered by some stand alone systems such pico-PV (Photovoltaic) or small diesel generators mostly operated by local entrepreneurs. Most households have to charge their phones at neighbor's houses (76% of mobile-owners), and a significant number have to pay a small fee for this service (42% of mobile-owners). Households rely heavily on batteries for powering radios (92% of radio-owners) and torches (98% of owners). An open fire is the main cooking method for virtually all households.

Two important challenges to measuring access to energy services include: (i) the absence of a universally accepted definition of “access” and (ii) the difficulty of measuring any definition in a precise manner [1].

For this study the multi-tier categorization of energy access proposed by the World Bank was explored. The present research adds modest insights by indicatively estimating the cost difference for reaching different tiers of electrification and demonstrating one method for doing so.

With the multi-tier approach, the energy needs of a region are calculated based on the ownership of appliances categorized by tier, each corresponding to the equivalent tier of electricity supply needed for their adequate operation. In addition each tier has different levels of supply attributes, including quantity (peak available capacity), duration, evening supply, affordability, legality, and quality (with higher tiers more and more electricity services become feasible). As shown in Fig. 2 & Table 1 this multi-tier approach divides energy access in six different levels, from Tier 0 where no or very little access to electricity is present (just enough to power a torch or a portable radio), to tier 5 where any high power appliances can be supported and cooking is done with BLEN1 cook stoves. The approach is technology neutral, and encompasses off-grid, mini-grid and grid solutions.

Section snippets

Methodology

The initial step of this work included a review of electrification projects in Timor Leste and related regions. Special attention to the village of Suro Craic in the Ainaro District, which was chosen as a characteristically illustrative case study (see Section 1.1). This step was coupled with a short review of energy access metrics and classification, and the selection of the multi-tier definition of energy access proposed in the World Bank's “Global Tracking Framework” for Sustainable Energy

Energy demand calculation for the village of Suro Craic

For this case study, seven categories of energy demand were defined for difference appliance used (Table 1), to fit the WB multi-tier approach to energy access.

Taking into account average appliance data and resulting power required in each tier,2 yearly projected energy demands for the village were calculated for the different target tiers of access. To determine supply

Results and discussion

This section focuses on a few key results from the analyses for each scenario. Relevance is given on the cost difference of reaching different tiers of energy access under the different scenarios, both for the provision of electricity and cooking to the rural population of Suro Craic. The results from the model in Answer OSeMOSYS indicate economically optimal conditions for the assumptions adopted in each scenario.

Conclusion

By using a case study approach it was possible to estimate cost differences that local administrations might face in meeting targets of different definitions of energy access. For the evaluated case study, achieving a tier 5 of electricity access (based on the World Bank definitions) between the years 2010–2030 for rural households could be up to seventy-five times more costly than achieving a tier 1, and five times more costly than a tier 3. In addition the comparison among scenarios have

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