Elsevier

Applied Energy

Volume 226, 15 September 2018, Pages 437-449
Applied Energy

Cost-optimal electricity systems with increasing renewable energy penetration for islands across the globe

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.05.108Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Highlights

  • Levelized system costs decreases considerably with increased penetration of renewables.

  • Cost-optimal systems occur in range of 40–80% renewable penetration.

  • Renewable penetration of 60–90% achieved at no additional cost from current prices.

  • Batteries become favorable storage option when initial costs reduce by 50–70%

Abstract

Cost-optimal electricity system configurations with increasing renewable energy penetration were determined in this article for six islands of different geographies, sizes and contexts, utilizing photovoltaic energy, wind energy, pumped hydro storage and battery storage. The results of the optimizations showed strong reasoning for islands to invest in renewable energy technologies (particularly wind energy), as compared to conventional power generation. Levelized cost of systems for electricity generation decrease considerably with increasing renewable energy penetrations, to an optimal point in the range of 40–80% penetration. Furthermore, renewable electricity integration in the order of 60–90% could still be achieved with no added cost from the initial situation. Cost increases after these optimal points are attributed to the growing inclusion of storage, required to meet the higher renewable energy shares. However, with battery costs forecast to fall in the coming years, and a cost reduction of 50–70% already causing lithium-ion batteries to overtake pumped hydro as a cost-favorable storage option in this model, there is a real case for islands to begin their transition in a staged process; first installing wind and PV generation, and then - as storage costs decrease and their renewable energy capacities increase - investing in storage options.

Keywords

Cost optimization
Island energy systems
Hybrid power plants
Renewable electricity systems
Pumped-hydro storage
Lithium-ion battery storage

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