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Modeling forest fires in Mazandaran Province, Iran

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Abstract

We used a spatio-temporal shot-noise Cox process to study the distribution of forest fires reported between 2006 and 2010 in the Mazandaran Province’s forests. The fitted model shows that daily temperature, altitude, and slope-exposure impacted fire occurrence. Forest fire occurred in the region had an aggregated behavior, which increased in radius below 1-km away from fired areas; a periodic pattern of fire occurrence in the region was verified. The risk of forest fire is significantly higher for areas with southern exposure and slope between 30° and 50°, northern exposure and slope between 0° and 50°, and eastern exposure and slope between 0° and 30°. The risk of fire was also significantly higher at altitudes between 1350 and 3000 m asl. Human causes were the main ignition source for forest fires in the region. The fire occurrence rate stayed above average during the drought period from September 2008 to September 2009. Our findings could lead to the development of fire-response and fire-suppression strategies appropriate to specific regions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Dr. Akhavan for his suggestions. Constructive reviewers’ comments are much appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty Member of Department of Mathematical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. Evin, Tehran, 1983963113, Iran

    Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

  2. Department of Basic Sciences, Payame Noor University Centre, Tehran, Iran

    Fatemeh Gorgani

  3. Faculty Member of Department of Agricultural Sciences, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Maryam Omidi Najafabadi

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  1. Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi
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  2. Fatemeh Gorgani
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  3. Maryam Omidi Najafabadi
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Correspondence to Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi.

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The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com

Corresponding editor: Yu Lei

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Najafabadi, A.T.P., Gorgani, F. & Najafabadi, M.O. Modeling forest fires in Mazandaran Province, Iran. J. For. Res. 26, 851–858 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-015-0107-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-015-0107-z

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