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Seasonal variability of the relationship between SST and OLR in the Indian Ocean and its implications for initialization in a CGCM with SST nudging

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Abstract

Correlations between sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies and their implication for seasonal prediction are discussed. The observed correlations exhibit robust seasonality with the maximum (minimum) in boreal spring (autumn) in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). This relationship is investigated in initial conditions that have been produced with SST nudging for seasonal predictions by a coupled model. It is found that the observed positive correlations in the EEIO cannot be reproduced by the model, despite its success in the Pacific. Thus, the SST nudging is not suitable for initialization of dynamical seasonal forecast for the Indian Ocean.

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Acknowledgments

We thank two anonymous reviewers for providing constructive comments. The CGCM was run on the supercomputers of the Information Technology Center, the University of Tokyo under the cooperative research with Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo. The present research is supported by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science through Grant-in-Aid for Exploratory Research 24654150.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Tsubasa Kohyama

  2. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan

    Tomoki Tozuka

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  1. Tsubasa Kohyama
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  2. Tomoki Tozuka
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Correspondence to Tomoki Tozuka.

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Kohyama, T., Tozuka, T. Seasonal variability of the relationship between SST and OLR in the Indian Ocean and its implications for initialization in a CGCM with SST nudging. J Oceanogr 72, 327–337 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-015-0329-x

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