Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A time series analysis of causality between tourist arrivals and climatic effects for nature-based tourism destinations: evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

  • Published:
Environment, Development and Sustainability Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Do tourist arrivals affect the climate of the destination or is it the climatic conditions that influence tourist decisions to visit a destination? These questions merit special attention for the nature-based and weather-dependent livelihoods in the mountainous regions of South Asia. Communities in these regions, on the one hand, are vulnerable to climatic change and rely on, on the other hand, income from tourism for their livelihoods. This research specifically examines whether a large number of temporary visitors to mountainous regions, which are otherwise isolated from urban settlements, contribute to the change in climate. To capture the changes in climate, we have taken four variables: temperature, rainfall, sunshine and humidity. Tourist arrival is recorded as total annual temporary tourists to the area annually for the years 2000–2017. Using an ARDL bound test method to co-integration and Granger causality test on time series data, this research empirically examines the relationships between tourism and climate change. The findings suggest that indicators like sunshine and temperature have significant long-run and short-run relation with tourist arrival. Likewise, results suggest bidirectional causality between tourists’ inflow and temperature, unidirectional causality toward tourist arrivals from sunshine and unidirectional causality from rain to tourist inflow. Humidity and tourist inflow are causality independent.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aguiló, E., Alegre, J., & Sard, M. (2005). The persistence of the sun and sand tourism model. Tourism Management, 26(2), 219–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2003.11.004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alam, K. M., Li, X., & Baig, S. (2019). Impact of transport cost and travel time on trade under China–Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC). Journal of Advanced Transportation. Online First. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/7178507.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anup, K. et al.. (no date). Climate change mitigation potential from carbon sequestration of community forest in mid hill region of Nepal, academia.edu.

  • Bae, J., & Nam, S. (2019). An analysis of the effect of climate indicators on tourism demand: a case study of Jeju Island. Journal of Policy Resarch in Tourism, Leisure and Events. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2019.1585363.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baig, S., Khan, A., Khan, A. A., & Bano, S. (2019). Rural tourism, income, and rapid urbanization exploring the nexus using a multidisciplinary approach. International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology., 10(4), 01–06.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baig, S., Qasim, M., Xuemei, L., & Alam, K. M. (2020). Is the China–Pakistan economic corridor an opportunity or a threat for small and micro-entrepreneurs? Empirical evidence from Northern Pakistan. Sustainability, 12(5), 1727–1746.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267–283. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00091.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barker, T. (2007). Climate change: An assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Change. https://doi.org/10.1256/004316502320517344.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett, J., & Adger, W. N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 639–655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2007.03.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becken, S., & Clapcott, R. (2011). National tourism policy for climate change. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 3(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2011.539378.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becken, S., & Hay, J. (2007). Tourism and climate change: Risks and opportunities.

  • Becken, S., Simmons, D. G., & Frampton, C. (2003). Energy use associated with different travel choices. Tourism Management, 24(3), 267–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0261-5177(02)00066-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cortes-Jimenez, I., & Pulina, M. (2010). Inbound tourism and long-run economic growth. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(1), 61–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500802684411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Freitas, C. R., Scott, D., & McBoyle, G. (2008). A second-generation climate index for tourism (CIT): Specification and verification. International Journal of Biometeorology, 52(5), 399–407. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-007-0134-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dubois, G., & Ceron, J. P. (2006). Tourism and climate change: Proposals for a research agenda. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 399–415. https://doi.org/10.2167/jost539.0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dwyer, L., et al. (2010). Estimating the carbon footprint of Australian tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3), 355–376. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669580903513061.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehmer, P. et al. (2008). Climate change and tourism: Where will the journey lead? Deutsche Bank Research, pp. 1–28.

  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation. Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 55(2), 251. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fauzel, S. (2019). The impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on tourists’ arrival: An ARDL analysis for the case of a SIDS. Current Issues in Tourism, 1, 1. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1639639.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gandomkar, A., & Mohseni, N. (2011). Analysis and estimate tourism climate index of Mazandaran Province, Using TCI Model.

  • Giribabu, M. (2013). Food and nutritional security in North East India: some contemporary issues. International Journal of Development Research, 3(5), 1–8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goh, C. (2012). Exploring impact of climate on tourism demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 39(4), 1859–1883.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gonzalez, P., & Moral, P. (1995). An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain. International Journal of Forecasting, 11(2), 233–251.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gössling, S. (2002). Human-environmental relations with tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(2), 539–556. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(01)00069-X.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, J., Maddison, D., & Tol, R. (2005). Effects of climate change on international tourism. Climate Research, 29, 245–254. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr029245.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harlfinger, O. (1991). Holiday bioclimatology: A study of Palma de Majorca, Spain. Geo Journal, 25(4), 377–381. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02439488.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hussain, M., et al. (2019). A comprehensive review of sectorial contribution towards greenhouse gas emissions and progress in carbon capture and storage in Pakistan. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 1, 617–636. https://doi.org/10.1002/ghg.1890.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the 4th Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  • Jalil, A., et al. (2011). Students’ Perception toward Social, Economic and Environmental Impacts of Tourism in Chitral - Pakistan. Tourism, 11(1), 1–8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kc, A., & Ghimire, A. (2015). High-altitude plants in era of climate change: A case of Nepal Himalayas’, in climate change impacts on high-altitude ecosystems (pp. 177–187). Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12859-7_6.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Khan, A. A., Khan, K., Abbas, S., & Kousar, S. (2016). Integrated appraisal for sustainable tourism management and socio-economic growth: implications for local community development mechanism, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Science International (Lahore), 28(5), 4937–4941.

    Google Scholar 

  • Khan, A. A., ul Hassan, S. N., Baig, S., Khan, M. Z., & Muhammad, A. (2019). The response of land surface temperature to the changing land-use land-cover in a mountainous landscape under the influence of urbanization: Gilgit City as a case study in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region of Pakistan. International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology, 10(3), 40–49.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim, Y., & Uysal, M. (1997). The endogenous nature of price variables in tourism demand studies. Tourism Analysis, 2(1), 9–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kremers, J. J. M., Ericsson, N. R., & Dolado, J. J. (1992). The power of cointegration tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 325–348. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1992.tb00005.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lise, W., & Tol, R. S. J. (2002). Impact of climate on tourist demand. Climatic Change, 55(4), 429–449. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020728021446.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malik, S., et al. (2010). Tourism, economic growth and current account deficit in Pakistan: Evidence from co-integration and causal analysis. European Journal of Economics, Finance, and Administrative Sciences, 22, 21–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matzarakis, A. (2006). Weather-and climate-related information for tourism. Tourism and Hospitality, Planning and Development, 3(2), 99–115. https://doi.org/10.1080/14790530600938279.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mieczkowski, Z. (1985). The Tourism climatic index: A method of evaluating world climates for tourism’. Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe canadien, 29(3), 220–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.1985.tb00365.x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moreno, A. (2010). Climate change and tourism—Impacts and vulnerability in coastal Europe.

  • Morton, J. F. (2007). The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 104(50), 19680–19685.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Patterson, T., Bastianoni, S., & Simpson, M. (2006). Tourism and climate change: Two-way street, or vicious/virtuous circle? Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 339–348. https://doi.org/10.2167/jost605.0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peeters, P. (2005). Climate change, leisure-related tourism and global transport. Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change, 24, 247–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peeters, P., & Dubois, G. (2010). Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(3), 447–457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.09.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pentelow, L., & Scott, D. J. (2011). Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry. Journal of Air Transport Management, 17(3), 199–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2010.12.010.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2012). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, pp. 371–413. https://doi.org/10.1017/ccol521633230.011.

  • Rasul, G., Hussain, A., Khan, M. A., Ahmad, F., & Jasra, A. W. (2014). Towards a framework for achieving food security in the mountains of Pakistan. ICIMOD working paper 2014/5. ICIMOD, Kathmandu.

  • Reddy, M. (2012).Tourism and climate change risks: Opportunities and constraints in South Africa.

  • Rosselló, J., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2014). Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: A revised picture for climatic change scenarios. Climatic Change, 124(1–2), 119–132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saarinen, J., et al. (2012). Tourism industry reaction to climate change in Kgalagadi South District. Botswana, Development Southern Africa, 29(2), 273–285. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2012.675697.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott, D., Jones, B., & Konopek, J. (2007). Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park. Tourism Management, 28(2), 570–579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.04.020.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott, D. J., Lemieux, C. J., & Malone, L. (2011). Climate services to support sustainable tourism and adaptation to climate change. Climate Research, 47(1–2), 111–122. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00952.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott, D., Peeters, P., & Gössling, S. (2010). Can tourism deliver its “aspirational” greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Journal of Sustainable Tourism. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669581003653542.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott, D., Wall, G., & McBoyle, G. (2005). The evolution of the climate change issue in the tourism sector. Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change, 22, 44–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simpson, M. C. et al. (2008). Climate change adaptation and mitigation in the tourism sector: frameworks, tools and practices. Climate change adaptation and mitigation in the tourism sector: frameworks, tools and practices. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

  • Solarin, S. A. (2014). Tourist arrivals and macroeconomic determinants of CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Anatolia. Detay Publication, 25(2), 228–241. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2013.868364.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sookram, S. (2009). The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in selected Caribbean countries. Caribbean Development Report, 2(30), 204–225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stocker, T. F. et al. (2013). Climate change 2013 the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107415324.

  • Tang, C. F. (2011). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Malaysia? a view from disaggregated tourism markets. International Journal of Tourism Research, 13(1), 97–101. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.807.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). Small sample evidence on the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Lebanon. Current Issues in Tourism. Informa Healthcare, 17(3), 234–246. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2012.732044.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tiwari, P. C., & Joshi, B. (2012). Natural and socio-economic factors affecting food security in the Himalayas. Food Security, 4(2), 195–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uyarra, M. C., et al. (2005). Island-specific preferences of tourists for environmental features: Implications of climate change for tourism-dependent states. Environmental Conservation, 32(1), 11–19. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892904001808.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wall, G. et al. (1986). The implications of climatic change for camping in Ontario’, in Recreation Research Review. 13(1), World Meteorological Organization. (2013). Retrieved on 18 October 2013 from: www.wmo.int. World Tourism Organization (2013). Tourism satellite account (TSA): The conceptual framework. Madrid: United Nations (UN). World Tourism Organization (2003), pp. 50–60.

  • Witt, S. F., & Witt, C. A. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting, 11(3), 447–475.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yapp, G. A., & McDonald, N. S. (1978). A recreation climate model. Journal of Environmental Management. Retrieved December 21, 2019 from https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/19791850613.

  • Younus, M. A. (2017). An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to cyclones through impact assessment guidelines: A bottom-up case study from Bangladesh coast. Natural Hazards, 89(3), 1437–1459.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Younus, M. A., & Harvey, N. (2014). Economic consequences of failed autonomous adaptation toextreme floods: A case study from Bangladesh. Local Economy, 1–2, 22–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The research was supported by the Thematic Research Grant in Social Sciences by Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan, Project title: CPEC-Tourism-Development Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Research on CPEC (CRC), Karakoram International University, Gilgit, Pakistan

    Saranjam Baig PhD & Amjad Ali Khan

  2. College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University, 123 Al-Khoud, Muscat, Oman

    Saranjam Baig PhD

  3. Center for GIS and Emerging Sciences/Department of Computer Sciences, Karakoram International University, Gilgit, Pakistan

    Aftab Ahmed Khan

Authors
  1. Saranjam Baig PhD
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Amjad Ali Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Aftab Ahmed Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Saranjam Baig PhD.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Baig, S., Khan, A.A. & Khan, A.A. A time series analysis of causality between tourist arrivals and climatic effects for nature-based tourism destinations: evidence from Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. Environ Dev Sustain 23, 5035–5057 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00803-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00803-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation