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Forecasting land-cover growth using remotely sensed data: a case study of the Igneada protection area in Turkey

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Abstract

Human activities in many parts of the world have greatly affected natural areas. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of land-cover changes are important components for sustainable utilization, conservation, and development of these areas. This research has been conducted on Igneada, a legally protected area on the northwest coast of Turkey, which is famous for its unique, mangrove forests. The main focus of this study was to apply a land use and cover model that could quantitatively and graphically present the changes and its impacts on Igneada landscapes in the future. In this study, a Markov chain-based, stochastic Markov model and cellular automata Markov model were used. These models were calibrated using a time series of developed areas derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery between 1990 and 2010 that also projected future growth to 2030. The results showed that CA Markov yielded reliable information better than St. Markov model. The findings displayed constant but overall slight increase of settlement and forest cover, and slight decrease of agricultural lands. However, even the slightest unsustainable change can put a significant pressure on the sensitive ecosystems of Igneada. Therefore, the management of the protected area should not only focus on the landscape composition but also pay attention to landscape configuration.

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Acknowledgments

This study was conducted within the EnviroGRIDS Project, which is an EU Funded 7th Framework Program Project under Grant Agreement 226740 (“Building Capacity for a Black Sea Catchment Observation and Assessment System Supporting Sustainable Development”) and TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) funded project (No 110Y015), “Monitoring of urban development in Igneada Protection Area and modelling for future.” Finally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and the editors for their constructive comments that improved the quality of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Urban and Regional Planning, Mimar Sinan Fine Arts University, 34427, Fındıklı, Istanbul, Turkey

    A. Gonca Bozkaya

  2. Geomatics Engineering, Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, 34469, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

    Filiz Bektas Balcik & Cigdem Goksel

  3. Faculty of Architecture, Department of Landscape Architecture, Istanbul Technical University, 34437, Taskisla, Istanbul, Turkey

    Hayriye Esbah

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  1. A. Gonca Bozkaya
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  4. Hayriye Esbah
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Correspondence to Filiz Bektas Balcik.

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Bozkaya, A.G., Balcik, F.B., Goksel, C. et al. Forecasting land-cover growth using remotely sensed data: a case study of the Igneada protection area in Turkey. Environ Monit Assess 187, 59 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-015-4322-z

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