Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers

  • CANCER
  • Published:
European Journal of Epidemiology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Background Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. Objective To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. Methods The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. Results The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005–2050 was 15–30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23–35 for mesothelioma. Conclusion This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Kjaergaard J, Andersson M. Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men. Scand J Work Environ Health. 2000;26(2):112–7.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Peto J, Decarli A, La Vecchia C, et al. The European mesothelioma epidemic. Br J Cancer. 1999;79(3–4):666–72.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  3. Peto J, Hodgson JT, Matthews FE, et al. Continuing increase in mesothelioma mortality in Britain. Lancet. 1995;345(8949):535–9.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Ilg AG, Bignon J, Valleron AJ. Estimation of the past and future burden of mortality from mesothelioma in France. Occup Environ Med. 1998;55(11):760–5.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Price B. Analysis of current trends in United States mesothelioma incidence. Am J Epidemiol. 1997;145(3):211–8.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  6. Murayama T, Takahashi K, Natori Y, et al. Estimation of future mortality from pleural malignant mesothelioma in Japan based on an age-cohort model. Am J Ind Med. 2006;49(1):1–7.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  7. Price B, Ware A. Mesothelioma trends in the United States: an update based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program data for 1973 through 2003. Am J Epidemiol. 2004;159(2):107–12.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  8. Segura O, Burdorf A, Looman C. Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands. Occup Environ Med. 2003;60(1):50–5.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Hodgson JT, McElvenny DM, Darnton AJ, et al. The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050. Br J Cancer. 2005;92(3):587–93.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. Pelucchi C, Malvezzi M, La Vecchia C, et al. The Mesothelioma epidemic in Western Europe: an update. Br J Cancer. 2004;90(5):1022–4.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Bianchi C, Giarelli L, Grandi G, et al. Latency periods in asbestos-related mesothelioma of the pleura. Eur J Cancer Prev. 1997;6(2):162–6.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  12. Marinaccio A, Montanaro F, Mastrantonio M, et al. Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models. Int J Cancer. 2005;115(1):142–7.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Banaei A, Auvert B, Goldberg M, et al. Future trends in mortality of French men from mesothelioma. Occup Environ Med. 2000;57(7):488–94.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Berry G. Prediction of mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis in former Wittenoom asbestos workers. Br J Ind Med. 1991;48(12):793–802.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. de Klerk NH, Armstrong BK, Musk AW, et al. Predictions of future cases of asbestos-related disease among former miners and millers of crocidolite in Western Australia. Med J Aust. 1989;151(11–12):616–20.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  16. Newhouse ML, Berry G. Predictions of mortality from mesothelial tumours in asbestos factory workers. Br J Ind Med. 1976;33(3):147–51.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  17. Peto J, Seidman H, Selikoff IJ. Mesothelioma mortality in asbestos workers: implications for models of carcinogenesis and risk assessment. Br J Cancer. 1982;45(1):124–35.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Berry G, de Klerk NH, Reid A, et al. Malignant pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in former miners and millers of crocidolite at Wittenoom, Western Australia. Occup Environ Med. 2004;61(4):e14.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Magnani C, Ferrante D, Barone-Adesi F, et al. Cancer risk after cessation of asbestos exposure: a cohort study of Italian asbestos cement workers. Occup Environ Med. 2008;65(3):164–70.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. Clements M, Berry G, Shi J, et al. Projected mesothelioma incidence in men in New South Wales. Occup Environ Med. 2007;64(11):747–52.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  21. Seniori Costantini A, Innocenti A, Ciapini C, et al. [Mortality in employees of a railway rolling stock factory]. Med Lav. 2000;91(1):32–45.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Silvestri S, Ciapini C. Job-exposure matrices for cohort studies: reconstructing past asbestos exposures in a railway stock production industry. Proceedings of the congress “Asbestos Risk and Management ARAM 2006”. Rome, 4–6 December 2006

  23. Gorini G, Silvestri S, Merler E, et al. Tuscany mesothelioma registry (1988–2000): evaluation of asbestos exposure. Med Lav. 2002;93(6):507–18.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. Hauptmann M, Pohlabeln H, Lubin JH, et al. The exposure-time-response relationship between occupational asbestos exposure and lung cancer in two German case-control studies. Am J Ind Med. 2002;41(2):89–97.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Walker AM. Declining relative risks for lung cancer after cessation of asbestos exposure. J Occup Med. 1984;26(6):422–6.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Clayton D, Hills M. Consecutive follow-up intervals. In: Clayton D, Hills M, editors. Statistical models in epidemiology. Oxford University Press; 1993. p. 27–39.

  27. Gallus S, Zuccaro P, Colombo P, et al. Smoking in Italy 2005–2006: effects of a comprehensive National Tobacco Regulation. Prev Med. 2007;45(2–3):198–201.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  28. Silvestri S, Benvenuti A. Asbestos exposure circumstances and malignant mesothelioma casuistry of the Tuscan Registry: preliminary indications on the efficacy of dust control measures introduced during the Seventies. Epidemiol Prev. 2007;31(4(Suppl 1)):75–80.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  29. de Klerk NH, Musk AW, Williams V, et al. Comparison of measures of exposure to asbestos in former crocidolite workers from Wittenoom Gorge, W. Australia. Am J Ind Med. 1996;30(5):579–87.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  30. Hesterberg TW, Miiller WC, Musselman RP, et al. Biopersistence of man-made vitreous fibers and crocidolite asbestos in the rat lung following inhalation. Fundam Appl Toxicol. 1996;29(2):269–79.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  31. Musselman RP, Miiller WC, Eastes W, et al. Biopersistences of man-made vitreous fibers and crocidolite fibers in rat lungs following short-term exposures. Environ Health Perspect. 1994;102(Suppl 5):139–43.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. Berry G. Models for mesothelioma incidence following exposure to fibers in terms of timing and duration of exposure and the biopersistence of the fibers. Inhal Toxicol. 1999;11(2):111–30.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgment

This study was funded by a grant from the Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Pistoia e Pescia.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Antonio Gasparrini.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Gasparrini, A., Pizzo, A.M., Gorini, G. et al. Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers. Eur J Epidemiol 23, 541–546 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-008-9257-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-008-9257-z

Keywords

Navigation