Abstract
Background Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups. Objective To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers. Methods The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung. Results The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005–2050 was 15–30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23–35 for mesothelioma. Conclusion This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Kjaergaard J, Andersson M. Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men. Scand J Work Environ Health. 2000;26(2):112–7.
Peto J, Decarli A, La Vecchia C, et al. The European mesothelioma epidemic. Br J Cancer. 1999;79(3–4):666–72.
Peto J, Hodgson JT, Matthews FE, et al. Continuing increase in mesothelioma mortality in Britain. Lancet. 1995;345(8949):535–9.
Ilg AG, Bignon J, Valleron AJ. Estimation of the past and future burden of mortality from mesothelioma in France. Occup Environ Med. 1998;55(11):760–5.
Price B. Analysis of current trends in United States mesothelioma incidence. Am J Epidemiol. 1997;145(3):211–8.
Murayama T, Takahashi K, Natori Y, et al. Estimation of future mortality from pleural malignant mesothelioma in Japan based on an age-cohort model. Am J Ind Med. 2006;49(1):1–7.
Price B, Ware A. Mesothelioma trends in the United States: an update based on surveillance, epidemiology, and end results program data for 1973 through 2003. Am J Epidemiol. 2004;159(2):107–12.
Segura O, Burdorf A, Looman C. Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands. Occup Environ Med. 2003;60(1):50–5.
Hodgson JT, McElvenny DM, Darnton AJ, et al. The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050. Br J Cancer. 2005;92(3):587–93.
Pelucchi C, Malvezzi M, La Vecchia C, et al. The Mesothelioma epidemic in Western Europe: an update. Br J Cancer. 2004;90(5):1022–4.
Bianchi C, Giarelli L, Grandi G, et al. Latency periods in asbestos-related mesothelioma of the pleura. Eur J Cancer Prev. 1997;6(2):162–6.
Marinaccio A, Montanaro F, Mastrantonio M, et al. Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models. Int J Cancer. 2005;115(1):142–7.
Banaei A, Auvert B, Goldberg M, et al. Future trends in mortality of French men from mesothelioma. Occup Environ Med. 2000;57(7):488–94.
Berry G. Prediction of mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis in former Wittenoom asbestos workers. Br J Ind Med. 1991;48(12):793–802.
de Klerk NH, Armstrong BK, Musk AW, et al. Predictions of future cases of asbestos-related disease among former miners and millers of crocidolite in Western Australia. Med J Aust. 1989;151(11–12):616–20.
Newhouse ML, Berry G. Predictions of mortality from mesothelial tumours in asbestos factory workers. Br J Ind Med. 1976;33(3):147–51.
Peto J, Seidman H, Selikoff IJ. Mesothelioma mortality in asbestos workers: implications for models of carcinogenesis and risk assessment. Br J Cancer. 1982;45(1):124–35.
Berry G, de Klerk NH, Reid A, et al. Malignant pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas in former miners and millers of crocidolite at Wittenoom, Western Australia. Occup Environ Med. 2004;61(4):e14.
Magnani C, Ferrante D, Barone-Adesi F, et al. Cancer risk after cessation of asbestos exposure: a cohort study of Italian asbestos cement workers. Occup Environ Med. 2008;65(3):164–70.
Clements M, Berry G, Shi J, et al. Projected mesothelioma incidence in men in New South Wales. Occup Environ Med. 2007;64(11):747–52.
Seniori Costantini A, Innocenti A, Ciapini C, et al. [Mortality in employees of a railway rolling stock factory]. Med Lav. 2000;91(1):32–45.
Silvestri S, Ciapini C. Job-exposure matrices for cohort studies: reconstructing past asbestos exposures in a railway stock production industry. Proceedings of the congress “Asbestos Risk and Management ARAM 2006”. Rome, 4–6 December 2006
Gorini G, Silvestri S, Merler E, et al. Tuscany mesothelioma registry (1988–2000): evaluation of asbestos exposure. Med Lav. 2002;93(6):507–18.
Hauptmann M, Pohlabeln H, Lubin JH, et al. The exposure-time-response relationship between occupational asbestos exposure and lung cancer in two German case-control studies. Am J Ind Med. 2002;41(2):89–97.
Walker AM. Declining relative risks for lung cancer after cessation of asbestos exposure. J Occup Med. 1984;26(6):422–6.
Clayton D, Hills M. Consecutive follow-up intervals. In: Clayton D, Hills M, editors. Statistical models in epidemiology. Oxford University Press; 1993. p. 27–39.
Gallus S, Zuccaro P, Colombo P, et al. Smoking in Italy 2005–2006: effects of a comprehensive National Tobacco Regulation. Prev Med. 2007;45(2–3):198–201.
Silvestri S, Benvenuti A. Asbestos exposure circumstances and malignant mesothelioma casuistry of the Tuscan Registry: preliminary indications on the efficacy of dust control measures introduced during the Seventies. Epidemiol Prev. 2007;31(4(Suppl 1)):75–80.
de Klerk NH, Musk AW, Williams V, et al. Comparison of measures of exposure to asbestos in former crocidolite workers from Wittenoom Gorge, W. Australia. Am J Ind Med. 1996;30(5):579–87.
Hesterberg TW, Miiller WC, Musselman RP, et al. Biopersistence of man-made vitreous fibers and crocidolite asbestos in the rat lung following inhalation. Fundam Appl Toxicol. 1996;29(2):269–79.
Musselman RP, Miiller WC, Eastes W, et al. Biopersistences of man-made vitreous fibers and crocidolite fibers in rat lungs following short-term exposures. Environ Health Perspect. 1994;102(Suppl 5):139–43.
Berry G. Models for mesothelioma incidence following exposure to fibers in terms of timing and duration of exposure and the biopersistence of the fibers. Inhal Toxicol. 1999;11(2):111–30.
Acknowledgment
This study was funded by a grant from the Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Pistoia e Pescia.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gasparrini, A., Pizzo, A.M., Gorini, G. et al. Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers. Eur J Epidemiol 23, 541–546 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-008-9257-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-008-9257-z