Abstract
Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (Tmean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to Tmean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to Tmean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ahmad S, Abbas Q, Abbas G (2017) Quantification of climate warming and crop management impacts on cotton phenology. Plants 6(1):7
Angstrom A (1924) Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radiation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 50(210):121–126
China Yearbook Press (2015) The People’s Republic of China Yearbook 2015. People’s Publishing House, Beijing
Chow GC (1960) Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica 28(3):591–605
Craufurd PQ, Wheeler TR (2009) Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. J Exp Bot 60(9):2529–2539
Ding M, Chen Q, Li L et al (2016) Temperature dependence of variations in the end of the growing season from 1982 to 2012 on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. GISci Remote Sens 53(2):147–163
Estrella N, Sparks TH, Menzel A (2007) Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany. Glob Chang Biol 13(8):1737–1747
Fujisawa M, Kobayashi K (2010) Apple (Malus pumila var. domestica) phenology is advancing due to rising air temperature in northern Japan. Glob Chang Biol 16(10):2651–2660
Ge Q, Wang H, Rutishauser T, Dai J (2015) Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis. Glob Chang Biol 21(1):265–274
Guo L, An N, Wang K (2016) Reconciling the discrepancy in ground- and satellite-observed trends in the spring phenology of winter wheat in China from 1993 to 2008. J Geophys Res Atmos 121(3):1027–1042
He L, Asseng S, Zhao G, Wu D et al (2015a) Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China. Agric For Meteorol 200:135–143
He Z, Du J, Zhao W et al (2015b) Assessing temperature sensitivity of subalpine shrub phenology in semi-arid mountain regions of China. Agric For Meteorol 213:42–52
Hoogenboom G, Jones JW, Wilkens PW et al (2015) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.6 (www.DSSAT.net). In: D. Foundation (Editor). Prosser, Washington
Hu Q, Weiss A, Feng S, Baenziger PS (2005) Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the U.S. Great Plains. Agric For Meteorol 135(1–4):284–290
Hu X, Huang Y, Sun W et al (2017) Shifts in cultivar and planting date have regulated rice growth duration under climate warming in China since the early 1980s. Agric For Meteorol 247:34–41
Iglesias A (2009) Use of DSSAT models for climate change impact assessment: calibration and validation of CERES-wheat and CERES-maize in Spain. Climate Variability. http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/cge/application/pdf/agriculture.dssatvalidation.pdf
IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 3–29
Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH et al (2003) The DSSAT cropping system model. Eur J Agron 18(3–4):235–265
Li Z, Yang P, Tang H et al (2014) Response of maize phenology to climate warming in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012. Reg Environ Chang 14(1):39–48
Lieth HH (1976) Contributions to phenology seasonality research. Int J Biometeorol 20(3):197–199
Liu Y, Chen Q, Ge Q et al (2018a) Modelling the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenological trends of spring and winter wheat in China. Agric For Meteorol 248:518–526
Liu Y, Chen Q, Ge Q et al (2018b) Spatiotemporal differentiation of wheat phenology change in China under climate change from 1981 to 2010. Sci China Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-017-9149-0
Lobell DB, Sibley A, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio J (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat Clim Chang 2(3):186–189
Rezaei EE, Siebert S, Ewert F (2015) Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming. Environ Res Lett 10(2):024012
Sacks WJ, Kucharik CJ (2011) Crop management and phenology trends in the U.S. Corn Belt: impacts on yields, evapotranspiration and energy balance. Agric For Meteorol 151(7):882–894
Siebert S, Ewert F (2012) Spatio-temporal patterns of phenological development in Germany in relation to temperature and day length. Agric For Meteorol 152:44–57
Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z (2012) Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. Eur J Agron 43:201–212
Tao F, Zhang Z, Shi W et al (2013) Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981–2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Glob Chang Biol 19(10):3200–3209
van Bussel LGJ, Stehfest E, Siebert S et al (2015) Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 24(9):1018–1029
Vitasse Y, Delzon S, Dufrêne E et al (2009) Leaf phenology sensitivity to temperature in European trees: do within-species populations exhibit similar responses? Agric For Meteorol 149(5):735–744
Wang HL, Gan YT, Wang RY et al (2008) Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in Northwest China. Agric For Meteorol 148(8–9):1242–1251
Wang J, Wang E, Feng L et al (2013) Phenological trends of winter wheat in response to varietal and temperature changes in the North China Plain. Field Crop Res 144:135–144
Wittich K-P, Liedtke M (2015) Shifts in plant phenology: a look at the sensitivity of seasonal phenophases to temperature in Germany. Int J Climatol 35(13):3991–4000
Wu X, Liu H (2013) Consistent shifts in spring vegetation green-up date across temperate biomes in China, 1982–2006. Glob Chang Biol 19(3):870–880
Xiao D, Tao F, Liu Y et al (2013) Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009. Int J Biometeorol 57(2):275–285
Xiao D, Moiwo J, Tao F et al (2015) Spatiotemporal variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 20(7):1191–1202
Xiao D, Tao F, Shen Y, Qi Y (2016) Combined impact of climate change, cultivar shift, and sowing date on spring wheat phenology in Northern China. J Meteorol Res 30(5):820–831
Yu H, Luedeling E, Xu J (2010) Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107(51):22151–22156
Zhang T, Huang Y, Yang X (2013) Climate warming over the past three decades has shortened rice growth duration in China and cultivar shifts have further accelerated the process for late rice. Glob Chang Biol 19(2):563–570
Funding
This work was supported by Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, [Grant No. XDA19040103], National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant No. 41671037], Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS [Grant No. 2016049], and Program for “Kezhen” Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS, [Grant No. 2017RC101]. We also thank the China Meteorological Administration for providing data support.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, Y., Chen, Q., Ge, Q. et al. Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology. Climatic Change 150, 273–287 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2264-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2264-5