Abstract
Intra-seasonal rainfall distribution was identified as a priority gap that needs to be addressed for southern Africa to cope with agro-meteorological risks. The region in the northwest of Lesotho is appropriate for crop cultivation due to its relatively favourable climatic conditions and soils. High rainfall variability is often blamed for poor agricultural production in this region. This study aims to determine the onset of rains, cessation of rains and rainy season duration using historical climate data. Temporal variability of these rainy season characteristics was also investigated. The earliest and latest onset dates of the rainy season are during the last week of October at Butha-Buthe and the third week of November at Mapoteng, respectively. Cessation of the season is predominantly in the first week of April making the season approximately 137–163 days long depending on the location. Average seasonal rainfall ranged from 474 mm at Mapoteng to 668 mm at Butha-Buthe. Onset and cessation of the rainfall season vary by 4–7 weeks and 1 week, respectively. Mean coefficient of variation of seasonal rainfall is 39 %, but monthly variations are higher. These variations make annual crop management and planning difficult each year. Trends show a decrease in the rainfall amounts but improvements in both the temporal distribution of annual rainfall, onset and cessation dates.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abaje I, Ishaya S, Usman S (2010) An analysis of rainfall trends in Kafanchan, Kaduna State, Nigeria. Res J Environ Earth Sci 2(2):89–96
Berdanier A, Klein J (2011) Growing season length and soil moisture interactively constrain high elevation aboveground net primary production. Ecosystems 14:963–974
Brouwer C, Heibloem M (1986) Irrigation water management, Training manual no. 3, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
Bureau of Statistics (2010) 2009/2010 Crop forecasting. Bureau of Statistics, Maseru
Bureau of Statistics (2012) 2011/2012 Crop forecasting. Bureau of Statistics, Maseru
Chabala L, Kuntashula E, Kaluba P (2013) Characterization of temporal changes in rainfall, temperature, flooding hazard and dry spells over Zambia. Univ J Agric Res 1(4):134–144
Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (2006) Assessment of 2005/06 agricultural production in Lesotho, Maseru
Davis C (2011) Climate risk and vulnerability: a handbook for Southern Africa. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, 92 pp
Dejene A, Midgley S, Marake M, Ramasamy S (2011) Strengthening capacity for climate change adaptation in agriculture: experience and lessons from Lesotho. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
Du Plessis J (2003) Maize production. Department of Agriculture, South Africa, 38 pp. Available at http://www.arc.agric.za/arc-gci/Fact%20Sheets%20Library/Maize-infopak.pdf. Accessed 26 Nov 2013
Engelbrecht F, Landman W (2010) Current climate. In: South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas, Chapter 2, Department of Science and Technology, Pretoria
Engelbrecht F, McGregor J, Engelbrecht C (2009) Dynamics of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model projected climate-change signal over Southern Africa. Int J Climatol 29:1013–1033
FAO (2013) FAO statistical year book 2013. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome
Garanganga B (2007) Climate monitoring in the Southern Africa Development Community. In: Sivakumar M, Ndiang’ui N (Eds) Climate and land degradation, Environmental Science and Engineering, pp 327–341
Gergis J, Fowler A (2009) A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: Implications for future climate change. Clim Chang 92:343–387
Grab S, Linde J (2014) Mapping exposure to snow in a developing African context: implications for human and livestock vulnerability in Lesotho. Nat Hazards 71:1537–1560
Guhathakurta P, Saji E (2013) Detecting changes in rainfall pattern and seasonality index vis-‘a-vis increasing water scarcity in Maharashtra. J Earth Syst Sci 122(3):639–649
Hachigonta S, Reason C, Tadross M (2008) An analysis of onset date and rainy season duration over Zambia. Theor Appl Climatol 91:229–243
Hadgu G, Tesfaye K, Mamo G, Kassa B (2013) Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers’ perception. Acad J Agric Res 1(6):88–100
He W, Feng G, Wu Q, Wan S, Chou J (2008) A new method for abrupt change detection in dynamic structures. Nonlinear Process Geophys 15:601–606
Igbadun H, Salim B, Tarimo A, Mahoo H (2008) Effects of deficit irrigation scheduling on yields and soil water balance of irrigated maize. Irrig Sci 27:11–23
Johnsson P (2004) Vegetation as an urban climate control in the subtropical city of Gaborone, Botswana. Int J Climatol 24:1307–1322
Jury M (2013) Climate trends in southern Africa. S Afr J Sci 109(½):1–11
Kripalani R, Kulkarni A (1996) Assessing the Impacts of El Niño and Non-El Niño-related Droughts over India, Drought Network News (1994-2001). Paper 24. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/24. Accessed 14 Mar 2014
Lansigan F, de los Santos W, Hansen J (2007) Delivering climate forecasts to farmers: ex-post assessment of impacts of climate information on corn production systems in Isabela, Philippines. In: Sivakumar M, Hansen J (Eds) Climate prediction and agriculture—advances and challenges, World Meteorological Organization
Laux P, Kunstmann H, B’ardossy A (2008) Predicting the regional onset of the rainy season in West Africa. Int J Climatol 28:329–342
Love D, Uhlenbrook S, Corzo-Perez G, Twomlow S, van der Zaag P (2010) Rainfall-interception-evaporation-runoff relationships in a semi-arid catchment, northern Limpopo Basin, Zimbabwe. Hydrol Sci J 55(5):687–703
Lumsden T, Schulze R (2007) Application of seasonal climate forecasts to predict regional scale crop yields in South Africa. In: Sivakumar M, Hansen J (Eds) Climate prediction and agriculture—advances and challenges, World Meteorological Organization
Manatsa D, Matarira C (2009) Changing dependence of Zimbabwean rainfall variability on ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode. Theor Appl Climatol 98:375–396
Manatsa D, Chingombe W, Matsikwa H, Matarira C (2008) The superior influence of Darwin sea level pressure anomalies over ENSO as a simple drought predictor for Southern Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 92:1–14
Mazvimavi D (2010) Investigating changes over time of annual rainfall in Zimbabwe. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14:2671–2679
Ministry of Natural Resources (2000) First National Communication to the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources, Maseru
Moeletsi M (2004) Agroclimatic characterization of Lesotho for dryland maize production. MSc thesis, Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
Moeletsi M, Walker S (2012) Assessment of agricultural drought using a simple water balance model in the Free State Province of South Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 108:425–450
Moeletsi M, Walker S (2013) Agroclimatological suitability mapping for dryland maize production in Lesotho. Theor Appl Climatol 114:227–236
Moeletsi M, Walker S, Landman W (2011) ENSO and implications on rainfall characteristics with reference to maize production in the Free State Province of South Africa. Phys Chem Earth 36:715–726
Mphale M, Rwambali E, Makoae M (2002) HIV/AIDS and its impacts on land tenure and livelihoods in Lesotho, Report prepared for Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Maseru
Mupangwa W, Walker S, Twomlow S (2011) Start, end and dry spells of the growing season in semi-arid southern Zimbabwe. J Arid Environ 75:1097–1104
Odekunle T, Adejuwon S (2007) Assessing changes in the rainfall regime in Nigeria between 1961 and 2004. GeoJournal 70:145–159
Pohl B, Fauchereau N, Richard Y, Rouault M, Reason C (2009) Interactions between synoptic, intraseasonal and interannual convective variability over Southern Africa. Clim Dyn 33:1033–1050
Pryor S, Schoof J (2008) Changes in the Seasonality of Precipitation over the Contiguous USA, Publications. Paper 11. http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/gers_pubs/11
Reason C, Engelbrecht F, Landman W, Lutjeharms J, Piketh S, Rautenbach C, Hewitson B (2006a) A review of South African research in atmospheric science and physical oceanography during 2000-2005. S Afr J Sci 102:35–45
Reason C, Landman W, Tennant W (2006b) Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of Southern African Climate and Its Links with Variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Am Meteorol Soc 941–955
Shiferaw B, Prasanna B, Hellin J, Bänziger M (2011) Crops that feed the world 6. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security. Food Secur 3:307–327
Singh N, Sontakke N (2002) On climatic fluctuations and environmental changes of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India. Clim Chang 52:287–313
Tadross M, Hewitson B, Usman M (2005) The interannual variability of the onset of the maize growing season over South Africa and Zimbabwe. J Clim 18:3356–3372
Taye M, Zewdu F (2012) Spatio-temporal variability and trend of rainfall and temperature in Western Amhara: Ethiopia: A GIS approach. Glob Adv Res J Geogr Reg Plan 1(4):65–82
Todd M, Washington R, Palmer P (2004) Water vapour transport associated with tropical-temperate trough systems over Southern Africa and the southwest Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 24:555–568
Tongwane M (2006) Optimum crop sowing dates and the climate variability in the north-northwestern lowlands of Lesotho during the maize cropping season. Project report submitted to the Central Training Institute, Indian Meteorological Department, Pashan, Pune-411008
Turkes M, Erlat E (2005) Climatological responses of winter precipitation in Turkey to variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2001. Theor Appl Climatol 81:45–69
Usman M, Reason C (2004) Dry spell frequencies and their variability over southern Africa. Clim Res 26:199–211
Vamerali T, Saccomani M, Bona S, Mosca G, Guarise M, Ganis A (2003) A comparison of root characteristics in relation to nutrient and water stress in two maize hybrids. Plant Soil 255:157–167
Walker N, Schulze R (2008) Climate change impacts on agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa. Agric Ecosyst Environ 124:114–124
Walsh R, Lawler D (1981) Rainfall seasonality: description, spatial patterns and change through time. Weather 36:201–208
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tongwane, M.I., Moeletsi, M.E. Intra-seasonal rainfall variability during the maize growing season in the northern lowlands of Lesotho. Theor Appl Climatol 120, 575–585 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1183-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1183-2