Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Managing the inconceivable: participatory assessments of impacts and responses to extreme climate change

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on “Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change” (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5–6 m sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Andriessen DG (1995) Policy simulation and crisis management: the harsh winter scenario. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Simulation and gaming across disciplines and cultures: ISAGA at a watershed. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp 101–110

    Google Scholar 

  • Argyris C, Putnam R, McLain Smith D (1985) Action science: concepts, methods, and skills for research and intervention. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Behringer J, Buerki R, Fuhrer J (2004) Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture. Integrated Assessment 1:331–338

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berk M, Hisschemöller M, Mol T, Hordijk L, Kok M, Metz B (2002) Strategies for long-term climate policy. The results of the COOL project. NRP Programme Office, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Berrens RP, Bohara AK, Jenkins-Smith HC, Silva CL, Weimer DL (2004) Information and effort in contingent valuation surveys: application to global climate change using national internet samples. J Environ Econ Manage 47:331–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brewer GD (1986) Methods for synthesis: policy exercises. In: Clark WC, Munn RE (eds) Sustainable development of the biosphere. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 455–473

    Google Scholar 

  • Brewer GD, Shubik M (1979) The war game: a critique of military problem solving. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Carmichael J, Tansey J, Robinson J (2004) An integrated assessment modeling tool. Glob Environ Change 14:171–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen SJ (ed) (1997) Mackenzie basin impact study. Final report. Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada

  • Cohen S, Neilsen D, Welbourn R (eds) (2004) Expanding the dialogue on climate change & water management in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia. Final Report. Available at http://www.ires.ubc.ca

  • Demeritt D, Langdon D (2004) The UK climate change programme and communication with local authorities. Glob Environ Change 14:325–336

    Google Scholar 

  • Duinker PN, Nilsson S, Toth FL (1993) Testing the “policy exercise” in studies of Europe’s forest sector: methodological reflections on a bittersweet experience, WP-93-23. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Duke RD, Greenblat C (1979) Game-generating games: a trilogy of issue oriented games for community and classroom. Sage, Beverly Hills, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Dunlap RE, Gallup GH, Gallup AM (1993) Of global concern. Results of the health of the planet survey. Environment 35(9):6–15, (33–39)

    Google Scholar 

  • Dürrenberger G, Kastenhoz H, Behringer J (1999) Integrated assessment focus groups: bridging the gap between science and policy? Sci Public Policy 26:341–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greenblat C, Duke RD (1981) Principles and practices of gaming-simulation. Sage, Beverly Hills, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoffman SM, Oliver-Smith A (eds) (2002) Catastrophe & culture. The anthropology of disaster. School of American Research Press, Santa Fe, NM

  • Horn RE, Cleaves A (1980) The guide to simulations/games for education and training. Sage, Newbury Park, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Joldersma C, Geurts JL, Vermaas J, Heyne G (1995) A policy exercise for the Dutch health care system for the elderly. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Simulation and gaming across disciplines and cultures: ISAGA at a watershed. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp 111–121

    Google Scholar 

  • Kasemir B, Jäger J, Jaeger CC, Gardner MT (eds) (2003) Public participation in sustainability science. A handbook. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

  • Kempton W (1991) Lay perspectives on global climate change. Glob Environ Change 1:183–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klabbers JHG, Swart RJ, Van Ulden AP, Vellinga P (1995) Climate policy: management of organized complexity through gaming. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Simulation and gaming across disciplines and cultures: ISAGA at a Watershed. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp 122–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Klabbers JHG, Bernabo C, Hirschemöller M, Moomaw B (1996) Climate change policy development: enhancing the science/policy dialogue. In: Watts F, Garcia Carbonell A (eds) Simulation now! Learning through experience: the challenge of change. Diputacio de Valencia, Valencia, Spain, pp 285–297

    Google Scholar 

  • Krosnick J, Visser P, Holbrook A (1998) American opinion on global warming. Resources 133:5–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Krueger RA (1988) Focus groups: a practical guide for applied research. Sage, Newbury Park, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Lonsdale KG, Downing TE, Nicholls RJ, Vafeidis N, Dawson R, Hall J (2008) A dialogue on responses to an extreme sea level rise scenario in the Thames Region, England. Clim Change (this issue)

  • McDaniels T, Axelrod LJ, Slovic P (1996) Perceived ecological risks of global change. A psychometric comparison of causes and consequences. Glob Environ Change 6:159–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mermet L (1992) Policy exercises on global environmental problems. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Global interdependence: simulation and gaming perspective. Springer, Tokyo, Japan, pp 216–222

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH (1995) Avoiding ‘dangerous’ interference in the climate system. The roles of values, science and policy. Glob Environ Change 5:3–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsthoorn X, van der Werff P, Bouwer L, Huitema D (2008) Neo-Atalantis: Dutch responses to five meter sea level rise. Clim Change (this issue)

  • Pahl-Wostl C (2002) Participative and stakeholder-based policy design, evaluation and modeling processes. Integrated Assessment 3:3–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pahl-Wostl C (2004) Actor based analysis and modeling approaches. Integrated Assessment 5:97–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parson EA (1996) A global climate-change policy exercise: results of a test run, July 27–29, 1995, WP-96-90. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Petak WJ, Atkisson AA (1982) Natural hazard risk assessment and public policy. Anticipating the unexpected. Springer, New York, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Poumadere M, Mays C, Pfeile G, Vafeidis N (2008) Worst case scenario and stakeholder group decision: a 5–6 meter sea level rise in the Rhone Delta, France. Clim Change (this issue)

  • Quanjel MMH, Willems AJ, Talen AN (1998) CRISISLAB: evaluation and improvement of crisis management through simulation/gaming. Simul Gaming 29:450–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schlumpf C, Pahl-Wostl C, Schönborn A, Jaeger CJ, Imboden D (2001) IMPACTS—an information tool for citizens to assess impacts of climate change from a regional perspective. Clim Change 51:199–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schulein P (1989) Crisis gaming for research and training. In: Klabbers JHG, Scheper WJ, Takkenberg CAT, Crookall D (eds) Simulation-gaming: on the improvement of competence in dealing with complexity, uncertainty and value conflicts. Pergamon, Oxford, UK, pp 106–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Shubik M (1975) The uses and methods of gaming. Elsevier, New York, NY

    Google Scholar 

  • Stewart J, Kendall E, Coote A (1994) Citizens’ juries. London, UK, Institute for Public Policy Research

    Google Scholar 

  • Tansey J, Carmichael J, VanWynsberghe R, Robinson J (2002) The future is not what it used to be: participatory integrated assessment in the Georgia Basin. Glob Environ Change 12:97–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol RSJ, Vellinga P (1998) The European forum on integrated environmental assessment. Environ Model Assess 3:181–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL (1988a) Policy exercises: objectives and design elements. Simul Games 19:235–255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL (1988b) Policy exercises: procedures and implementation. Simul Games 19:256–276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL (1992a) Policy responses to climate change in Southeast Asia. In: Schmandt J, Clarkson J (eds) The regions and global warming: impacts and response strategies. Oxford University Press, New York, NY, pp 304–322

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL (1992b) Global change and the cross-cultural transfer of policy games. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Global interdependence: simulation and gaming perspective. Springer, Tokyo, Japan, pp 208–215

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL (1995) Simulation/gaming for long-term policy problems. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Simulation and gaming across disciplines and cultures: ISAGA at a watershed. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp 134–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL, Hizsnyik E (2004a) Assessing the implications of extreme sea-level rise—part 1: stakeholder interaction methodology in the ATLANTIS project. Background paper. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL, Hizsnyik E (2004b) Assessing the implications of extreme sea-level rise—part 2: two pilot designs for the ATLANTIS stakeholder workshops. Background paper. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Toth FL, Kasemir B, Masing V (1998) Climate Policy as a business opportunity for venture capital in Europe. ULYSSES Working Paper WP-98-2, ZIT. Darmstadt University, Darmstadt, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  • van de Kerkhof M (2004) Debating climate change. Lemma, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Wenzler I, Willems R, van’t Noordende AM (1995) A policy exercise for the Dutch power industry. In: Crookall D, Arai K (eds) Simulation and gaming across disciplines and cultures: ISAGA at a watershed. Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, pp 143–150

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik

Authors
  1. Ferenc L. Toth
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Eva Hizsnyik
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ferenc L. Toth.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Toth, F.L., Hizsnyik, E. Managing the inconceivable: participatory assessments of impacts and responses to extreme climate change. Climatic Change 91, 81–101 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9425-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9425-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation