Abstract
This chapter aims to predict the health care expenditure (HCE) per capita which is an important indicator of a country’s health status and economic growth. Accurate estimation of HCE can guide efficient health care policy making and resource allocation. Grey forecasting models are applied for predicting the HCE per capita of Turkey. Three different strategies are proposed which are rolling mechanism, training data size optimization and parameter optimization to improve the forecasting accuracy of these models. Genetic algorithm (GA) which is one of the most widely used meta-heuristic optimization techniques is applied for training data size and parameter optimization of the grey forecasting models. The application results indicate that the optimization of parameters and training data size together with rolling mechanism highly improve the forecasting performance of the grey models.
References
Abdel-Aal RE, Mangoud AM (1998) Modeling and forecasting monthly patient volume at a primary health care clinic using univariate time-series analysis. Comput Methods Prog Biomed 56(3):235–247
Aboagye-Sarfo P, Mai Q, Sanfilippo FM, Preen DB, Stewart LM, Fatovich DM (2015) A comparison of multivariate and univariate time series approaches to modelling and forecasting emergency department demand in Western Australia. J Biomed Inform 57:62–73
Akay D, Atak M (2007) Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey. Energy 32(9):1670–1675
Alvisi S, Franchini M (2012) Grey neural networks for river stage forecasting with uncertainty. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 42:108–118
Astolfi R, Lorenzoni L, Oderkirk J (2012) Informing policy makers about future health spending: a comparative analysis of forecasting methods in OECD countries. Health Policy 107(1):1–10
Bahrami S, Hooshmand RA, Parastegari M (2014) Short term electric load forecasting by wavelet transform and grey model improved by PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm. Energy 72:434–442
Benítez RBC, Paredes RBC, Lodewijks G, Nabais JL (2013) Damp trend grey model forecasting method for airline industry. Expert Syst Appl 40(12):4915–4921
Blanco-Moreno Á, Urbanos-Garrido RM, Thuissard-Vasallo IJ (2013) Public healthcare expenditure in Spain: measuring the impact of driving factors. Health Policy 111(1):34–42
Box GE, Jenkins GM (1976) Time series analysis: forecasting and control, revised edn. Holden-Day, San Francisco
Chang CJ, Li DC, Huang YH, Chen CC (2015) A novel gray forecasting model based on the box plot for small manufacturing data sets. Appl Math Comput 265:400–408
Chang SC, Lai HC, Yu HC (2005) A variable P value rolling grey forecasting model for Taiwan semiconductor industry production. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 72(5):623–640
Chatfield C (2000) Time-series forecasting. CRC Press, Florida, USA
Chen CI (2008) Application of the novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting unemployment rate. Chaos, Solitons Fractals 37(1):278–287
Chen CI, Chen HL, Chen SP (2008) Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model NGBM (1, 1). Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 13(6):1194–1204
Chen CI, Hsin PH, Wu CS (2010) Forecasting Taiwan’s major stock indices by the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model. Expert Syst Appl 37(12):7557–7562
Cui J, Liu SF, Zeng B, Xie NM (2013) A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization. Appl Math Model 37(6):4399–4406
Deng J (1982) Control problems of grey systems. Syst Control Lett 1(5):288--294
Deng J (1986) Grey prediction and decision. Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan
Diebold FX (1998) Elements of forecasting, 4th edn. South-Western College Publications, Ohio, USA
Eswaran C, Logeswaran R (2012) A dual hybrid forecasting model for support of decision making in healthcare management. Adv Eng Softw 53:23–32
Feng SJ, Ma YD, Song ZL, Ying J (2012) Forecasting the energy consumption of China by the grey prediction model. Energy Sources Part B Econ Plan Policy 7(4):376–389
Ferrand Y, Kelton CM, Guo JJ, Levy MS, Yu Y (2011) Using time-series intervention analysis to understand US Medicaid expenditures on antidepressant agents. Res Soc Adm Pharm 7(1): 64–80
Froelich W, Salmeron JL (2014) Evolutionary learning of fuzzy grey cognitive maps for the forecasting of multivariate, interval-valued time series. Int J Approx Reason 55(6):1319–1335
Getzen T (2000) Forecasting health expenditures: short, medium and long (long) term. J Health Care Finance 26(3):56–72
Gille L, Houy T (2014) The future of health care demand in developed countries: from the “right to treatment” to the “duty to stay healthy”. Futures 61:23–32
Hamzacebi C, Es HA (2014) Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model. Energy 70:165–171
Hartwig J, Sturm JE (2014) Robust determinants of health care expenditure growth. Appl Econ 46(36):4455–4474
Holland JH (1975) Adaptation in natural and artificial systems: an introductory analysis with applications to biology, control, and artificial intelligence. The University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor
Hsu CC, Chen CY (2003) Applications of improved grey prediction model for power demand forecasting. Energy Convers Manag 44(14):2241–2249
Hsu LC (2009) Forecasting the output of integrated circuit industry using genetic algorithm based multivariable grey optimization models. Expert Syst Appl 36(4):7898–7903
Hsu LC (2010) A genetic algorithm based nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for output forecasting in integrated circuit industry. Expert Syst Appl 37(6):4318–4323
Hsu LC (2011) Using improved grey forecasting models to forecast the output of opto-electronics industry. Expert Syst Appl 38(11):13879–13885
Hsu LC, Wang CH (2007) Forecasting the output of integrated circuit industry using a grey model improved by the Bayesian analysis. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(6):843–853
Hsu YT, Liu MC, Yeh J, Hung HF (2009) Forecasting the turning time of stock market based on Markov–Fourier grey model. Expert Syst Appl 36(4):8597–8603
Huang KY, Jane CJ (2009) A hybrid model for stock market forecasting and portfolio selection based on ARX, grey system and RS theories. Expert Syst Appl 36(3):5387–5392
Huang Y, Wang Y, Gai S (2011) The application and research of a new combinatorial analysis and forecasting method in real estate area based on grey system theory and multivariate linear regression. Procedia Eng 15:4532–4537
Huarng KH, Yu THK (2014) A new quantile regression forecasting model. J Bus Res 67(5):779–784
Intharathirat R, Salam PA, Kumar S, Untong A (2015) Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models. Waste Manag 39:3–14
Jalalpour M, Gel Y, Levin S (2015) Forecasting demand for health services: development of a publicly available toolbox. Oper Res Health Care 5:1–9
Jiang X, Zhang L, Chen XM (2014) Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: a hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China. Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 44:110–127
Jiang Y, Yao Y, Deng S, Ma Z (2004) Applying grey forecasting to predicting the operating energy performance of air cooled water chillers. Int J Refrig 27(4):385–392
Kang J, Zhao H (2012) Application of improved grey model in long-term load forecasting of power engineering. Syst Eng Procedia 3:85–91
Kumar U, Jain VK (2010) Time series models (grey-Markov, grey model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India. Energy 35(4): 1709–1716
Lago-Peñas S, Cantarero-Prieto D, Blázquez-Fernández C (2013) On the relationship between GDP and health care expenditure: a new look. Econ Model 32:124–129
Lee R, Miller T (2002) An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the US Medicare system. Health Serv Res 37(5):1365–1386
Lee YS, Tong LI (2011) Forecasting energy consumption using a grey model improved by incorporating genetic programming. Energy Convers Manag 52(1):147–152
Lei M, Feng Z (2012) A proposed grey model for short-term electricity price forecasting in competitive power markets. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 43(1):531–538
Li DC, Chang CJ, Chen CC, Chen WC (2012) Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach – an Asian case. Omega 40(6):767–773
Li DC, Chang CJ, Chen WC, Chen CC (2011a) An extended grey forecasting model for omnidirectional forecasting considering data gap difference. Appl Math Model 35(10): 5051–5058
Li DC, Yeh CW, Chang CJ (2009) An improved grey-based approach for early manufacturing data forecasting. Comput Ind Eng 57(4):1161–1167
Li GD, Wang CH, Masuda S, Nagai M (2011b) A research on short term load forecasting problem applying improved grey dynamic model. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 33(4):809–816
Lin YH, Lee PC, Chang TP (2009) Adaptive and high-precision grey forecasting model. Expert Syst Appl 36(6):9658–9662
Liu X (2013) A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model and its application in primary energy related CO 2 emissions estimation by sector in China. Energy Procedia 36:815–824
Ma W, Zhu X, Wang M (2013) Forecasting iron ore import and consumption of China using grey model optimized by particle swarm optimization algorithm. Res Policy 38(4):613–620
Maisonneuve C, Martins JO (2013) A projection method for public health and long-term care expenditures, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 1048. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k44v53w5w47-en
Marešová P, Mohelská H, Kuča K (2015) Economics aspects of ageing population. Procedia Econ Finance 23:534–538
Mun J (2006) Modeling risk: applying Monte Carlo simulation, real options analysis, forecasting, and optimization techniques, vol 347. Wiley, New York, USA
Munkin MK, Trivedi PK (2003) Bayesian analysis of a self-selection model with multiple outcomes using simulation-based estimation: an application to the demand for healthcare. J Econ 114(2):197–220
Ou SL (2012) Forecasting agricultural output with an improved grey forecasting model based on the genetic algorithm. Comput Electron Agric 85:33–39
Pao HT, Fu HC, Tseng CL (2012) Forecasting of CO 2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model. Energy 40(1):400–409
Prieto DC, Lago-Peñas S (2012) Decomposing the determinants of health care expenditure: the case of Spain. Eur J Health Econ 13(1):19–27
Ren XW, Tang YQ, Li J, Yang Q (2012) A prediction method using grey model for cumulative plastic deformation under cyclic loads. Nat Hazards 64(1):441–457
Samvedi A, Jain V (2013) A grey approach for forecasting in a supply chain during intermittent disruptions. Eng Appl Artif Intell 26(3):1044–1051
Sheng-qiang Y, Yan S, Zu-yun C, Bao-hai Y, Quan X (2009) Establishment of grey-neural network forecasting model of coal and gas outburst. Procedia Earth Planet Sci 1(1):148–153
Soyiri IN, Reidpath DD (2013) An overview of health forecasting. Environ Health Prev Med 18(1):1–9
Sun X, Sun W, Wang J, Zhang Y, Gao Y (2016) Using a grey–Markov model optimized by Cuckoo search algorithm to forecast the annual foreign tourist arrivals to China. Tour Manag 52: 369–379
Tang HWV, Yin MS (2012) Forecasting performance of grey prediction for education expenditure and school enrollment. Econ Educ Rev 31(4):452–462
Tsai SB (2016) Using grey models for forecasting China’s growth trends in renewable energy consumption. Clean Techn Environ Policy 18(2):563–571
Tsaur RC (2010) The development of an interval grey regression model for limited time series forecasting. Expert Syst Appl 37(2):1200–1206
Tseng FM, Yu HC, Tzeng GH (2001) Applied hybrid grey model to forecast seasonal time series. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 67(2):291–302
Van Baal PH, Wong A (2012) Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: some further considerations. J Health Econ 31(6):876–887
Wang CH, Hsu LC (2008) Using genetic algorithms grey theory to forecast high technology industrial output. Appl Math Comput 195(1):256–263
Wang X, Cai Y, Chen J, Dai C (2013) A grey-forecasting interval-parameter mixed-integer programming approach for integrated electric-environmental management–a case study of Beijing. Energy 63:334–344
Wang Z (2009) Stock returns and the short-run predictability of health expenditure: some empirical evidence. Int J Forecast 25(3):587–601
Wei G (2011) Grey relational analysis model for dynamic hybrid multiple attribute decision making. Knowl-Based Syst 24(5):672–679
Wu L, Liu S, Liu D, Fang Z, Xu H (2015) Modelling and forecasting CO 2 emissions in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries using a novel multi-variable grey model. Energy 79:489–495
Wu L, Liu S, Yao L, Yan S, Liu D (2013) Grey system model with the fractional order accumulation. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 18(7):1775–1785
Wu WY, Chen SP (2005) A prediction method using the grey model GMC (1, n) combined with the grey relational analysis: a case study on Internet access population forecast. Appl Math Comput 169(1):198–217
Xia M, Wong WK (2014) A seasonal discrete grey forecasting model for fashion retailing. Knowl-Based Syst 57:119–126
Xie F, Chen Z, Shang J, Fox GC (2014) Grey forecast model for accurate recommendation in presence of data sparsity and correlation. Knowl-Based Syst 69:179–190
Xie NM, Liu SF (2009) Discrete grey forecasting model and its optimization. Appl Math Model 33(2):1173–1186
Xie NM, Liu SF, Yang YJ, Yuan CQ (2013) On novel grey forecasting model based on non-homogeneous index sequence. Appl Math Model 37(7):5059–5068
Xie NM, Yuan CQ, Yang YJ (2015) Forecasting China’s energy demand and self-sufficiency rate by grey forecasting model and Markov model. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 66:1–8
Yao AW, Chi SC, Chen JH (2003) An improved grey-based approach for electricity demand forecasting. Electr Power Syst Res 67(3):217–224
Yu THK, Wang DHM, Wu KL (2015) Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures. J Bus Res 68(4):783–787
Zeng XY, Shu L, Huang GM, Jiang J (2015) Triangular fuzzy series forecasting based on grey model and neural network. Appl Math Model. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2015.08.009
Zhang H, Li Z, Chen Z (2003) Application of grey modeling method to fitting and forecasting wear trend of marine diesel engines. Tribol Int 36(10):753–756
Zhan-Li M, Jin-Hua S (2011) Application of grey-Markov model in forecasting fire accidents. Procedia Eng 11:314–318
Zhao Z, Wang J, Zhao J, Su Z (2012) Using a grey model optimized by differential evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. Omega 40(5):525–532
Zhou J, Fang R, Li Y, Zhang Y, Peng B (2009) Parameter optimization of nonlinear grey Bernoulli model using particle swarm optimization. Appl Math Comput 207(2):292–299
Zhou PABW, Ang BW, Poh KL (2006) A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand. Energy 31(14):2839–2847
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Özcan, T., Tüysüz, F. (2018). Healthcare Expenditure Prediction in Turkey by Using Genetic Algorithm Based Grey Forecasting Models. In: Kahraman, C., Topcu, Y. (eds) Operations Research Applications in Health Care Management. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 262. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65455-3_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65455-3_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-65453-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-65455-3
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)