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The 2016 general election officially commenced with the Republican Party’s nominating convention in Cleveland, Ohio on July 18, 2016. The Republican National Committee ’s selection of Ohio for their convention was strategic. Ohio is the ultimate bellwether state, picking the winner of the presidential election 95% of the time. 1 Ohio offered the Republican Party additional benefits. It was home to one of the most popular Republican governors in the country (John Kasich) as well as to a popular Republican Senator (Rob Portman). When the convention site was selected, it was assumed that both Kasich and Portman would play prominent roles in the convention, but in the end, Governor Kasich boycotted the event entirely and Senator Portman attended but turned down a speaking role, preferring to remain out of the limelight.

That John Kasich chose to publically boycott the Republican National Convention in his home state tells you everything you need to know about the status of the Republican Party heading into the 2016 general election. It was a party torn asunder, deeply divided over its presidential nominee . National party conventions are highly anticipated events, and speaking roles are normally coveted because of the reputational gains they bring. Barack Obama’s unlikely political trajectory from little known Illinois state senator, to U.S. Senator, to president in just a little over 5 years began at the 2004 Democratic National Convention where he delivered the keynote address that became known simply as “The Speech.” 2 The fact that the Republican National Committee was having a hard time finding talent to speak at the 2016 nominating convention was yet another unprecedented aspect of the 2016 presidential election.

Governor Kasich was not alone, several other prominent members of the Republican Party declined to even attend the convention, let alone speak at it. The list of convention boycotters includes both former presidents Bush, Senator John McCain , and 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. Other prominent Republicans also skipped the convention citing various reasons. Senator Ben Sasse’s spokesman informed the media that he was “instead taking his kids to watch some dumpster fires across the state, all of which enjoy more popularity than the current front-runners.” Representative Mario Diaz told Politico he had a hair appointment he couldn’t miss. Senator Jeff Flake would be mowing his lawn. Representative Trey Gowdy went on a beach vacation. And a Kansas state senator reported having a hot date lined up “touring Kansas libraries, courthouses, and pharmacies.” 3 All told six sitting governors, twenty-one sitting senators, and nine members of the House of Representatives did not attend their own party’s national convention. To be sure, party officials skipping the national convention for political reasons isn’t novel. It happens at every convention. But what is novel was the number of them doing so, nearly 50% of the GOP’s Senate delegation did not attend. Unprecedented.

Rumors abound on who did, and who did not, actually receive offers for speaking roles but turned them down. The eventual line-up ended up producing few current office-holding Republican speakers with national profiles. One of those speakers was Texas Senator Ted Cruz who used his moment in the spotlight on a symbolic coup, extolling GOP delegates to “vote their conscious.” The only thing Cruz’s efforts got him was a cacophony of boos and jeers from the audience. 4 Cruz’s speech only mentioned Donald Trump once, at the beginning when he congratulated him for winning the nomination but Cruz never gave Trump his endorsement. Given the events of the Republican primary and the ongoing feud between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, the selection of Cruz for a speaking role was indicative of the struggle convention organizers faced presenting party unity , the centerpiece of all nominating convention’s messaging strategy .

In accepting the Republican Party’s nomination, Donald Trump made history, becoming the first presidential nominee without any public service experience in history. Trump delivered a 75-minute speech, one of the longest convention speeches ever given. The speech was dark for a convention speech, invoking an image of an America in decline, inundated by crime, threats of terrorism, and illegal immigration. Despite some rough patches from a plagiarism controversy involving Melania Trump and the disunity displayed by Ted Cruz’s speech, the Republican National Convention ended on a high note, earning Trump a 5-point convention bounce in the polls . It would be the only time he would lead Clinton in the polls throughout the entire general election .

The Democratic Party’s convention in Philadelphia a week later also opened with disunity. In what would later be revealed to be a planned attack by Russia, a cache of stolen emails from the Democratic National Committee was released to the public via WikiLeaks on the eve of the convention. Some emails showed DNC staff members deriding Bernie Sanders’ and his supporters, giving more fuel to claims that the DNC had “interfered” in the primary process to advantage Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. In the hours before, the convention officially commenced, then DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz was forced to resign from the DNC and give up her role of formally opening the convention.

The Democratic National Convention kicked off with “Bernie or Bust ” delegates in open rebellion. Speakers were booed, even Elizabeth Warren . Following the lead of their candidate eventually the protests died out and the convention took on a controlled tone. Where the Republican Party had struggled to find speakers, the Democratic Party’s convention was stocked full of top-tier talent. Elizabeth Warren , Bernie Sanders , and Michelle Obama on the first night , Bill Clinton the second night, President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden the third night: the party’s leaders presented a unified front excited about their 2nd history-making nominee in a row.

But the party unity on display in the closing days of the each party’s convention hid deep divisions. For the Republican Party, the base was united behind their contraversial nominee but the party’s elites were fractured, unsure how much, if any, support they should give Donald Trump. For Democrats, the unity of party insiders obfuscated disunity and discontent within the progressive wing of the Democratic base. Progressives were deeply skeptical of Hillary Clinton, and some were downright hostile. Research into party disunity finds that division within the party’s base from the primary can hurt the party’s chances to win the general election. So too does division within the party’s elites in which the national party cannot unite to support the party’s nominee. (Gurian et al. 2016). The 2016 presidential election featured one campaign entering the general election suffering from a divided electorate and the other campaign entering the general election suffering from a divided national party. It would be the party that could best bridge their respective divide that would prevail in November.

On Thursday July 28, 2016, Hillary Clinton also made history, becoming the first woman to officially accept the nomination for President of the United States from one of the two major political parties. In general, the Democratic National Convention received good reviews buying Clinton a modest, 3-point convention bounce. However, the modest increase in Clinton’s polling average from the convention was enhanced by Trump’s rapid polling collapse after he went on the attack against the Khan family, who spoke on Clinton’s behalf at the Democratic Party’s convention. The Khans lost their son when he died in combat on a deployment to Iraq. As a Muslim family, they hoped sharing their story of service and loss would highlight the contributions that American Muslims make and humanize Donald Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Khirz Khan’s convention speech resonated with the liberal audience but it ended up giving the Democrats much more than that after Trump lashed out at the family in a series of interviews and tweets . In an interview with ABC News, Donald Trump suggested that Khan’s wife Ghazala Khan stood behind her husband silently because she was “not allowed to speak.” 5 Facing furious backlash not only from Democrats but also from his own party members, Trump doubled down on his attacks. After less than two weeks of relative party harmony, Trump quickly erased both his poll gains and the ground he’d made winning over reluctant Republican Party insiders .

The incident kicked off a troubled August for the Trump campaign which was struggling to develop a viable campaign infrastructure. Trump had been trailing Clinton in the polls for weeks and was under pressure to raise funds after a lethargic summer. The Trump campaign began to turn things around in late August. Paul Manafort was fired and replaced by veteran GOP operative Kelly Anne Conway. At the end of the month, the Trump campaign reported strong August fund-raising. Through September, the race began to narrow. By the middle of the month, Clinton’s lead was down to just three points, within the margin of error.

Just when it looked like Donald Trump would be competitive against Clinton and had perhaps gotten a handle on his erratic behavior, signs of new trouble began to emerge. In the days before the first presidential debate reports began to surface that Trump was refusing to engage in traditional debate preparation. The idea was so preposterous that some political analysts (including your author) theorized the Trump campaign was leaking a false narrative about his debate preparation as part of a strategy to lower expectations . Clinton was known to be a skilled debater, so it seemed reasonable that the Trump team would work to lower expectations to mitigate what most recognized as a significant disadvantage for Donald Trump. Indeed, Trump’s debate expectations were lower than even those of Sarah Palin’s in the 2008 vice presidential debate against Joe Biden.

In the end, Donald Trump did exceed expectations at the first presidential debate; he managed to do even worse than expected. A scientific poll released after the debate showed Clinton beating Trump by an almost historic margin with 53% of respondents, identifying Clinton as the winner compared to just 18% selecting Trump. While more than half of respondents credit Clinton with getting most of her facts right, just 29% said the same about Trump. 6 Either never having been coached on debate etiquette or simply not utilizing any of his training, Donald Trump spent the entire 90-minute debate on rambling, nonsensical tirades. He committed innumerable physical gaffes such as rolling his eyes and sighing exasperatedly.

The debate culminated with Trump walking right into a trap laid by the Clinton team. The trap was so obvious that Saturday Night Live would go on to parody it by showing Clinton reeling Trump in with a fishing pole. In a well-rehearsed cadence, Hillary Clinton recounted Trump’s comments about former Miss Universe Alicia Machado . Hillary Clinton recounted comments made by Donald Trump in which he allegedly called her “Miss Piggy” and “Miss Housekeeping” (referring to her Latina heritage). 7 The next morning on Fox and Friends, Donald Trump responded exactly the way the Clinton team hoped he would: by doubling down. Rather than apologizing for the statements and deflecting to other issues as any other candidate would do, Trump defended his treatment of Machado during her tenure as Miss Universe telling the panel she had gained a “massive amount of weight.” 8 Subsequent interviews with Machado would reveal that during her tenure as Miss Universe, Trump had shamed her publically for her weight gain, even going so far as to force her to work out in front of cameras. Facing blowback, Trump kept on the offensive, turning to Twitter to continue to attack her for her weight and urging his followers to “check out |her| sex tape and past.” Combined with his disastrous debate performance, the Machado scandal tanked Trump’s poll numbers. By the beginning of October, the race had opened back up in Clinton’s favor, giving her a six-point lead. Then on October 8, the Access Hollywood video dropped. The video footage showed Donald Trump and Today Show host Billy Bush engaged in lewd, at times predatory, discussion of women and a now-famous line from Trump in which he said that being a celebrity allows him “grab |women| by the pussy” if he wants to. 9

The Access Hollywood video was damning, more so even than the famous 47% video that had badly hurt Mitt Romney’s campaign in 2012. 10 Still, despite some polls showing a large decline in support for Trump, the RealClear Politics aggregate changed only modestly. At the state level, the effects were more evident. A poll my colleague and I ran after the video was released found Clinton leading Trump by 15 points in Virginia , effectively moving the state off of the battleground list. A week after the video’s release, Clinton was leading Trump by four points in Florida , six points in Nevada , eight points in Colorado , six points in Pennsylvania , and eight points in Wisconsin , and the Trump campaign was in a free fall. Senator Rob Portman , up for reelection in Ohio , pulled his endorsement. South Dakota Senator John Thune called on Trump to withdraw from the race. New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte , also in a tough reelection fight, reversed her commitment to vote for Donald Trump. All told more than three dozen Republicans called on Donald Trump to hand the ticket over to his vice presidential nominee Mike Pence . 11

Speaker Paul Ryan held a conference call with his congressional caucus and told them they could do whatever was in their best interests electorally in regard to Trump. 12 He pulled himself out of a rally with Trump in Wisconsin and said he would no longer “engage” with the candidate although he did not retract his endorsement. 13 The move elicited a typical Trump Twitter response. Trump tweeted “|o|ur very weak and ineffective leader, Paul Ryan, had a bad conference call where his members went wild at his disloyalty” followed up by a second tweet that said, “despite winning the second debate in a landslide (every poll), it is hard to do well when Paul Ryan and other (sic) give zero support.”

Although the second debate was better for Trump, scientific polls conducted after the debate again showed Clinton was the winner. 14 To rebut the Access Hollywood scandal, the Trump team devised a strategy to neutralize the issue at the second debate. They brought women from Bill Clinton’s past, some of whom had accused him of sexual assault, to the debate and sat them prominently in the debate audience with the hopes of unsettling Clinton. 15 Trump spent the debate relentlessly attacking Hillary Clinton for her husband’s infidelity and alleged sexual harassment. At one point, he threatened to imprison her over her use of a private email server if he won the presidency. 16 Trump also continually loomed closely behind Clinton when she spoke, so much so that at one point she stopped mid-point to glance over her shoulder. 17 The unconventional strategy delighted Republican base voters but unnerved other voters.

Heading into the third and final debate on October 19, the race had assumed a stasis of a six-point Clinton advantage. The third debate was the most substantive of the three and Donald Trump’s best performance. That being said , Donald Trump continued his unorthodox rhetorical style and refused to commit to accepting the results of the November 8 election after a week making headlines asserting widespread fraud in the U.S. electoral system that some argued damaged the legitimacy of American democracy. Election forecasting models from fivethirtyeight.com and Huffington Post’s Pollster showed the probability of a Clinton victory on Election Day at 70% or better. Although Trump had improved as a candidate, his performance was still well below that of traditional presidential candidates and although the campaign had managed to stop the bleeding, they had made virtually no progress in growing his portion of the electorate.

Then, on Friday, October 28, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress informing them that additional emails that may be related to the investigation of Clinton’s email server had been uncovered and would need to be reviewed. The revelation set off a firestorm of media coverage and breathless speculation and put the controversy back on center stage. For the final two weeks of the campaign, Donald Trump used the reopened investigation to remind voters of what he characterized as Clinton’s reckless disregard for national security during her tenure as Secretary of State. For most of the primary campaign, the email server scandal had hung on the Clinton campaign like an albatross. In July, in a controversial news conference, Comey announced the conclusion of the probe into Clinton’s private email server and the decision by the FBI not to recommend charges against Clinton despite what he characterized a “reckless” handling of classified material. Although prominent on the stump at Trump campaign rallies, the email scandal had largely faded into the background. Now the skeptiscm voters had regarding Clinton’s trust and honesty was back in the forefront of voters’ minds. Whether or not the Comey letter actually pushed voters away from Clinton in the final days, it breathed new life into what was up until that point a deflated Trump campaign. Trump hit the stump with new vigor and more discipline, largely staying on the teleprompter and away from Twitter. Three days before the election, FBI Director Comey announced the additional emails contained no new relevant information pertaining to Clinton and the investigation was once again closed. But the damage had already been done. The polls had narrowed to within a few points, well within the margin of error in some swing states.

Despite the narrowing of the polls on Election Day, the Clinton team still felt confident that they would be ending the night by making history having elected the first female President of the United States. Forecasting models not only predicted a decisive Clinton win but also a strong performance for the Democratic Party in down ballot races. The victory party was to be held at the Javits Center in Manhattan. The Javits Center hosted an enormous glass ceiling; the symbolism would be breathtaking. It is the job of campaigns to express optimism about winning on election night, but inside the Clinton campaign, they were well aware that the Midwest had become a problem. The Comey letter hadn’t moved Clinton voters away from Clinton but it did seem to be pushing disaffected Independent voters planning on voting third party to change their mind and vote for Trump (Allen and Parnes 2017, 366). Abandoning their strategy to expand the Electoral College map, the Clinton team shifted resources to Michigan and Pennsylvania . The final day of campaigning Clinton held an event in Michigan and two in Pennsylvania before wrapping up her campaign with a star-studded rally in North Carolina .

On Election night, the first signs of trouble came in Florida . Trump was outperforming Romney in the state’s rural areas by big numbers, wiping out the modest gains Clinton had made improving Obama’s turnout (Allen and Parnes 2017). By 11 p.m., Trump held modest leads in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania , and the realization that Clinton was probably going to lose the election had settled over the once jubilant crowd at the Javits Center . Footage from the room showed shocked disbelief which eventually turned into visible grief. The finger-pointing had already begun both internally within the campaign and across the nation’s media outlets. It was the greatest upset in the history of American politics and everyone was scrambling to offer explanations.

In the end, Donald Trump won the presidency by carrying 30 states and 304 Electoral College votes. He hadn’t just broken through the Democrat ’s Blue Wall , he’d shattered it. All told Trump flipped six states Obama had carried in 2012 and 2008: Michigan , Wisconsin , Ohio , Pennsylvania , Iowa , and Florida . He carried Michigan and Wisconsin by less than 1%. Remarkably, Hillary Clinton had carried the popular vote by nearly 3,000,000 votes but lost the election via the Electoral College. The last time that had happened was the controversial election of 2000, when Al Gore lost the presidency via the Electoral College while winning the popular vote by a half million votes. Election 2016 cemented its place in the history books by offering one final unprecedented event: the improbable victory of Donald J. Trump.

Since the election, many theories have been offered to explain why Hillary Clinton lost the most winnable campaign in the history of presidential elections. The Clinton team points to the Comey letter , combined with effects from the DNC and Podesta emails leaked by the Russians, as playing a decisive role in her loss. In Shattered, Allen and Parnes argue it was Clinton’s failings as a candidate combined with a poorly run campaign plagued by internal power struggles, nepotism, and no clear chain of command. Because of its superficiality, the Shattered hypothesis is particularly popular in the media who need to explain complex problems via digestible soundbites.

Vice President Joe Biden argues Clinton’s loss was a product of poor messaging that ignored white working-class voters and failed to incorporate enough populist angst. In an interview, Hillary Clinton argued that as a female candidate she is limited in the amount of anger it is advisable to show on the stump. A man might be able to stand up and give a fiery speech denouncing “the man” but if a woman did the same she would come off as too aggressive and unhinged. 18 The explanation offered in this research argues that Clinton’s loss was a product of all of these things yet none of them, at least not individually. They are all effects, not causes. They are manifestations of a broader strategy the campaign adopted months before Election Day; a strategy that was the right one until the election results proved it to be the wrong one. To understand why Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 presidential election, one must look for the cause, not at effects. As such, the campaign must be examined holistically and from a wide strategic lens. The Clinton campaign made a key strategic decision at the beginning of the general election cycle that framed every other decision they made and dictated how the campaign played out on Election Day. But in order to understand why the Clinton campaign chose this particular strategy and why it ultimately failed, it is first necessary to take a deep dive into the minds of voters.

FormalPara Notes
  1. 1.

    Kyle Kondik, Why Ohio Picks the President,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball, University of Virginia Center for Politics, http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/why-ohio-picks-the-president/.

  2. 2.

    You can watch “The Speech” here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWynt87PaJ0.

  3. 3.

    Tessa Stuart, “27 Best Republican Excuses for Skipping Trump’s RNC,” RollingStone, http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/27-best-republican-excuses-for-skipping-trumps-rnc-w429467.

  4. 4.

    Peter Schroeder, “No Trump endorsement from Cruz: ‘Vote your conscience’,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/288607-no-trump-endorsement-from-cruz-who-tells-gop-vote-your.

  5. 5.

    Steve Turnham, “Donald Trump to Father of Fallen Soldier: ‘I’ve Made a Lot of Sacrifices’,”ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-father-fallen-soldier-ive-made-lot/story?id=41015051.

  6. 6.

    Gary Langer, “Clinton Trounces Trump in Debate Reactions; Trump’s Unfavorability Edges Up,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-whomps-debate-reactions-trumps-unfavorability-edges-poll/story?id=42498052.

  7. 7.

    “Trump and Clinton Discuss Alicia Machado,” Time, https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004674290/trump-and-clinton-discuss-alicia-machado.html.

  8. 8.

    “Trump doubles down on former Miss Universe Alicia Machado: ‘She gained a massive amount of weight’,” The Week, http://theweek.com/speedreads/651452/trump-doubles-down-former-miss-universe-alicia-machado-gained-massive-amount-weight.

  9. 9.

    Ben Mathis-Lilley, “Trump Was Recorded in 2005 Bragging About Grabbing Women “by the Pussy”,” Slate, http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/07/donald_trump_2005_tape_i_grab_women_by_the_pussy.html.

  10. 10.

    David Corn, “SECRET VIDEO: Romney Tells Millionaire Donors What He REALLY Thinks of Obama Voters,” Mother Jones, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser/.

  11. 11.

    Aaron Blake, “Three dozen Republicans have now called for Donald Trump to drop out,” The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/07/the-gops-brutal-responses-to-the-new-trump-video-broken-down/?utm_term=.226dba5c8bdf.

  12. 12.

    Phillip Rucker and Robert Costa, “The GOP tumbles toward anarchy: ‘It’s every person for himself or herself’,” The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-gop-tumbles-toward-anarchy-its-every-person-for-himself-or-herself/2016/10/10/31bc6d24-8f13-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?utm_term=.a3dada9526fd.

  13. 13.

    Lisa Mascro, “House Speaker Paul Ryan will not campaign with Trump, but still endorses him,” Los Angeles Times, http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-campaign-2016-updates-morning-1476114008-htmlstory.html.

  14. 14.

    Neetzan Zimmerman, “Second poll declares Clinton winner of presidential debate,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/300166-second-poll-declares-clinton-winner-of-second-presidential.

  15. 15.

    Andrea Mitchell and Alastair Jamieson, “Trump Planned Debate ‘Stunt’, Invited Bill Clinton Accusers to Rattle Hillary,” NBC News, http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-presidential-debates/trump-planned-debate-stunt-invited-bill-clinton-accusers-rattle-hillary-n663481.

  16. 16.

    Gregory Krieg, “Trump threatens to jail Clinton if he wins election,” CNN Politics, http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/09/politics/eric-holder-nixon-trump-presidential-debate/index.html.

  17. 17.

    Meghan Keneally, Veronica Stracqualursi, Sushannah Walshe, Meredith McGraw, and Julia Jacobo, “2nd Presidential Debate: 11 Moments That Mattered,” ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/presidential-debate-11-moments-mattered/story?id=42687340.

  18. 18.

    Meghann Farnsworth, “Watch Hillary Clinton’s full interview from our Code Conference,” Recode, https://www.recode.net/2017/5/31/15716226/watch-live-hillary-clinton-code-conference-today.