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Scenarios and Decision Analysis

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Abstract

In this chapter, we first provide a numerical method for evaluating an organisation’s strategies against the range of constructed scenarios. How should this be accomplished—especially when the organization has several objectives that it wishes to achieve? We then provide an introduction to a numerical analysis of the actions of powerful—and less-powerful—stakeholders as they react to particular scenarios in order to secure their own objectives against an unfolding future. Both approaches to quantification give us clear insights into what otherwise would be very complex situations.

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References

  • Cairns, G., Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2015). A Decision-Analysis-Based Framework for Analysing Stakeholder Behaviour in Scenario Planning. European Journal of Operational Research, 194, 323–335.

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  • Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2001). Enhancing Strategy Evaluation in Scenario Planning: A Role for Decision Analysis. Journal of Management Studies, 38, 1–16.

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  • Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2009). Decision Analysis for Management Judgement (4th ed.). Chichester: John Wiley.

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Cairns, G., Wright, G. (2018). Scenarios and Decision Analysis. In: Scenario Thinking. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0_5

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