Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Handbook of Climate Change Management pp 1–17Cite as

Fate of Coastal Aquifers under the Changing Climate and Hydrologic Extremes: Review and Modeling Scenarios

  • Living reference work entry
  • First Online:

  • 29 Accesses

Abstract

Despite the complex interactions between climate and the hydrological systems, recent studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on the dynamics of the hydrologic systems, which in turn result in hydrological extremes (i.e., flood and droughts). Climate change and the associated hydrologic extremes have significant impacts both on surface and groundwater resources. This study, incorporating two parts – a review and modeling scenarios, evaluated the influence of climate change and associated hydrologic extremes on coastal groundwater dynamics. In the review part, it was noted that the changing climate and the increasing frequency of the hydrologic extremes are direct threats to coastal groundwater sustainability. Further, the simplified conceptual framework–based seawater intrusion model was used to provide a first-order assessment of the dynamics of the seawater-freshwater interface as a result of climate change and a multiyear drought. To do this, seawater intrusion models were constructed using the SEAWAT model based on two scenarios: (1) a 2.1 mm/year sea-level rise and (2) the combined effect of sea-level rise and a multiyear (10 years) drought. For the second scenario, records from the multiyear (2002–2010) Australian drought were used. The model conceptualization assumes steady-state condition, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer properties, and constant recharge (in the first scenario). In the first scenario, the model predicted a 40 m inland migration of the seawater-freshwater interface toe as a result of the 2.1 mm/year sea-level rise for 10 consecutive years, while predictions for the second scenario showed a 720 m inland migration of the interface. The review and modeling scenarios in this paper bring new insights into the impacts of climate change and hydrological extremes on coastal groundwater that are of relevance to governments, organizations, and researchers with globally distributed interests. Specifically, the impacts of hydrological extremes on coastal groundwater dynamics may be used to evaluate the future of coastal aquifers in areas with frequent drought experiences.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

References

  • Aghakouchak A, Feldman D, Stewardson MJ, Saphores JD, Grant S, Sanders B (2014) Australia’s drought: lessons for California. Science 343:1430–1431

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Al-Maktoumi A, Lockington DA, Volker RE (2000) SEAWAT 2000: modelling unstable flow and sensitivity to discretization levels and numerical schemes. Hydrogeol J 15(6):1119–1129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andersen MS, Christensen FD, Engesgaard P, Jakobsen R (2006) Density driven seawater plumes in a shallow aquifer caused by a flooding event – field observations and numerical modelling. first SWIM-SWICA. In: 19th Salt water intrusion meeting & third salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers meeting – Cagliari, Chia Laguna, Italy, September 24–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Andersen MS, Jakobsen R, Nyvang V, Christensen FD, Engesgaard P, Postma D (2007) Density driven seawater plumes in a shallow aquifer caused by a flooding event – field observations, consequences for geochemical reactions and potentials for remediation schemes. GQ07: securing groundwater quality in urban and industrial environments. In: Proceedings of the sixth international groundwater quality conference, Fremantle, Western Australia, 2–7 December 2007

    Google Scholar 

  • Andreu J, Ferrer-Polo J, Perez MA, Solera A (2009) Decision support system for drought planning and management in the Jucar River Basin, Spain. In: 18th world IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia, pp 1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakker M (2006) Analytic solutions for interface flow in combined confined and semi-confined. Coastal aquifers. Elsevier Adv Water Resour 29:417–425

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bakker M, Oude E, Langevin CD (2004) The rotating movement of three immiscible fluids – a benchmark problem. J Hydrol 287:270–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bamber JL, Riva REM, Vermeersen BLA, Le Brocq AM (2009) Reassessment of the potential sea-level rise from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science 324(5929):901–903

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Barlow PM (2003) Ground water in freshwater-saltwater environments of the Atlantic Coast. USGS, pp 1–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Basher MA, Liu T, Kabir MA, Ntegeka V, Willems P (2010) Climate change impact on the hydrological extremes in the Kaidu River Basin, China. J Flood Eng 1(2):93–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Befus KM, Kroeger KD, Smith CG, Swarzenski PW (2017) The magnitude and origin of groundwater discharge to Eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters. Geophys Res Lett 44(20):10,396–10,406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bentley MJ (2010) The Antarctic paleo record and its role in improving predictions of future Antarctic Ice Sheet change. J Quat Sci 25(1):5–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burnett WC, Aggarwal PK, Aureli A, Bokuniewicz H, Cable JE, Charette MA, Kontar E et al (2006) Quantifying submarine groundwater discharge in the coastal zone via multiple methods. Sci Total Environ 367(2–3):498–543

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Charlesworth PB, Narayan KA, Bristow KL, Lowis B, Laidlow G, McGowan R (2002) The Burdekin Delta – Australia’s oldest recharge scheme. Proc ISAR 4:22–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark PU (2009) The last glacial maximum. Science 325:710–714

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Dettinger M, Cayan DR (2014) Drought and the California Delta – a matter of extremes. San Franc EstuaryWatershed Sci 12(2):1–6

    Google Scholar 

  • Dominey-Howes D, Goff J (2013) Tsunami risk management in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs): some issues, challenges and ways forward. Pure Appl Geophys 170:1397–1413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (1997) Seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Guidelines for study, monitoring and control. FAO Water Reports, Rome, pp 1–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer EM, Knutti R (2016) Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat Clim Chang 1–6:986–991

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fok HS, He Q, Chun KP, Zhou Z, Chu T (2018) Application of ENSO and drought indices for water level reconstruction and prediction: a case study in the lower mekong river estuary. Water 10:1–58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galloway JN, Townsend AR, Erisman JW, Bekunda M, Cai Z, Freney JR, Martinelli LA, Seitzinger SP, Sutton MA (2008) Transformation of the nitrogen cycle. Science 320:889–892

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ghassemi F, Chen TH, Jakeman AJ, Jacobson G (1993) Two and three - dimensional simulation of seawater intrusion: performances of the “SUTRA” and “HST3D” models. AGSO J Aust Geol Geophys 14(2/3):219–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Gotovac H, Andrecevic R, Vranjes M (2001) Effects of aquifer heterogeneity on the intrusion of seawater. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on saltwater intrusion and coastal aquifers – monitoring, modelling and management, Essaouira, Morocco, April 23–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo W, Langevin CD (2002) User’s Guide to SEAWAT: A Computer Program for Simulation of Three-Dimensional Variable-Density Ground-Water Flow: Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations Book 6. Chapter A7:1–77

    Google Scholar 

  • Hisdal H, Tallaksen LM, Clausen B, Peters E, Gustard A (2004) Hydrological drought characteristics. In: Developments in water science. Elsevier Science B.V., pp 139–198

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers, contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organisation. 5 February

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2019) Special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 25 September, Online: https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/home/. Accessed Jan 2020

  • Ivins ER (2009) Ice sheet stability and sea level. Science 324:888–889

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson T (2007) Battling seawater intrusion in the Central & West Coast Basins. Water Replenishment District of Southern California, pp 1–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Joughin I, Alley RB (2011) Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world. Nat Geosci 4(8):506–513

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Judi DR, Rakowski CL, Waichler SR, Feng Y (2018) Integrated modeling approach for the development of climate-informed, actionable information. Water 10:750–775

    Google Scholar 

  • Jyrkama MI, Sykes JF (2006) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the recharge boundary condition. Water Resour Res 42(1):1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim G, Kim JS, Hwang DW (2011) Submarine groundwater discharge from oceanic islands standing in oligotrophic oceans: Implications for global biological production and organic carbon fluxes. Limnol Oceanogr 56(2):673–682

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Langevin CD (2009) SEAWAT: a computer program for simulation of variable-density groundwater flow and multi-species solute and heat transport: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet FS-3047, pp 1–2

    Google Scholar 

  • Langevin CD, Guo W (2006) MODFLOW/MT3DMS-based simulation of variable-density groundwater flow and transport. Ground Water 44(1):339–351

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lenahan MJ, Bristow KL (2010) Understanding sub-surface solute distributions and salinization mechanisms in a tropical coastal floodplain groundwater system. J Hydrol 390(3–4):131–142

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Li L, Switzer AD, Wang Y, Chan C-H, Qiu Q, Weiss R (2018) A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau. Am Assoc Adv Sci 4(8):1–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin J, Zheng C, Wu J, Chien CC (2007) Groundwater simulation optimization model based on genetic algorithm under variable density conditions. Shuili Xuebao/J Hydraulic Eng 38(10):1236–1244

    Google Scholar 

  • Luca PD, Messori G, Wilby RL, Mazzolen M, Baldassarre GD (2020) Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale. Earth Syst Dynam 11:251–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luetz JM (2008) Planet prepare – preparing coastal communities in Asia for future catastrophes. World Vision International, Los Angeles/Singapore, pp 1–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Manfreda S, Smettem K, Iacobellis V, Montaldo N, Sivapalan M (2010) Preface of the special issue: coupled ecological-hydrological processes. Ecohydrology 3:131–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manfreda S, Iacobellis V, Gioia A, Fiorentino M, Kochanek K (2018) The impact of climate on hydrological extremes. Water 10(6):1–3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matanle P, Littler J, Slay O (2019) Imagining disasters in the era of climate change: is Japan’s seawall a new maginot line? Asia Pac J 17(13):1–29

    Google Scholar 

  • McGrath GS, Sadler R, Fleming K, Tregoning P, Hinz C, Veneklaas EJ (2012) Tropical cyclones and the ecohydrology of Australia’s recent continental-scale drought. Geophys Res Lett 39(3):1–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer R, Engesgaard P, Sonnenborg TO (2019a) Origin and dynamics of saltwater intrusion in a regional aquifer: combining 3D saltwater modelling with geophysical and geochemical data. Water Resour Res 55:1792–1813

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer R, Engesgaard P, Sonnenborg TO (2019b) Origin and dynamics of saltwater intrusion in a regional aquifer: combining 3D saltwater modelling with geophysical and geochemical data. Water Resour Res 55:1–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Mishra K, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narayan KA, Schleeberger C, Bristow KL (2007) Modelling seawater intrusion in the Burdekin Delta Irrigation Area, North Queensland, Australia. Agric Water Manag 89:217–228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NASA (2020) If all of Earth’s ice melts and flows into the ocean, what would happen to the planet’s rotation? https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/30/if-all-of-earths-ice-melts-and-flows-into-the-ocean-what-would-happen-to-the-planets-rotation/. Accessed 06 Mar 2020

  • NCCOE, National Committee on Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Engineers Australia (2004), Guidelines for Responding to the Effects of Climate Change, 1–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Nestler S, Maren V, Forster S (2011) Input and fate of dissolved nitrogen compounds via submarine groundwater discharge into the Puck Bay Gutachter. Poland, pp 1–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Peters E, Bier G, van Lanen HAJ, Torfs PJJF (2006) Propagation and spatial distribution of drought in a groundwater catchment. J Hydrol 321:257–275

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Post VEA, Prommer H (2007) Multicomponent reactive transport simulation of the Elder problem: effects of chemical reactions on salt plume development. Water Resour Res 43:W10404

    Google Scholar 

  • Post VEA, Groen J, Kooi H, Person M, Ge S, Edmunds WM (2013) Offshore fresh groundwater reserves as a global phenomenon. Nature 504:71–78

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pritchard HD, Vaughan DG (2007) Widespread acceleration of tidewater glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 112(F3):1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romanescu G, Mihu-Pintilie A, Stoleriu CC, Carboni D, Paveluc LE, Catalin I, Cimpianu CI (2018) A comparative analysis of exceptional flood events in the context of heavy rains in the summer of 2010: Siret Basin (NE Romania) case study. Water 10:200–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sawyer AH, David CH, Famiglietti JS (2016) Continental patterns of submarine groundwater discharge reveal coastal vulnerabilities. Science 353(6300):705–707

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schleussner CF, Pfleiderer P, Fischer EM (2017) In the observational record half a degree matters. Nat Clim Chang 7:460–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sherif MM, Singh VP (1999) Effect of climate change on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol Process 13(8):1277–1287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shishaye HA (2015) Technical note: groundwater flow modelling in coastal aquifers – the influence of submarine groundwater discharge on the position of the saltwater–freshwater interface. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 12:3753–3785

    Google Scholar 

  • Shishaye HA (2020) Nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural farms and its contribution to global warming: handbook of climate services. Springer Nature, Cham, pp 1–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Slomp CP, Cappellen PV (2004) Nutrient inputs to the coastal ocean through submarine groundwater discharge: controls and potential impact. J Hydrol 295:64–86

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Smith I, Timbal B (2012) Links between tropical indices and southern Australia rainfall. Int J Climatol 32:33–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Strack ODL (1976) A single-potential solution for regional interface problems in coastal aquifers. Water Resour Res 12:1165–1174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Su Z, Hao Z, Yuan F, Chen X, Cao Q (2017) Spatiotemporal variability of extreme summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin and the associations with climate patterns. Water 9:850–873

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun P, Zhang Q, Yao R, Singh VP, Song C (2018) Low flow regimes of the Tarim River Basin, China: probabilistic behavior, causes and implications. Water 10:450–470

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tait DR, Erler DV, Santos IR, Cyronak TJ, Morgenstern U, Eyre BD (2014) The influence of groundwater inputs and age on nutrient dynamics in a Coral Reef Lagoon. Mar Chem 166:36–47

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tanachaichoksirikun P, Seeboonruang U (2019) Effect of climate change on groundwater age of Thailand’s Lower Chao Phraya Basin. IOP Conf Ser Mater Sci Eng 639:1–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taufik M, Setiawan BI, van Lanen H (2015) Modification of a fire drought index for tropical wetland ecosystems by including water table depth. Agric Meteorol 203:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thayalakumaran T, Charlesworth P, Bristow K (2004) Assessment of the geochemical environment in the lower Burdekin aquifer: Implications for the removal of nitrate through denitrification. CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, pp 1–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner IL (1998) Monitoring groundwater dynamics in the littoral zone at seasonal, storm, tide and swash frequencies. Coastal Eng 35(1–2):1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner IL, Coates BP, Acworth I (1996) The effects of tides and waves on water-table elevations in coastal zones. Hydrogeol J 4(2):51–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner IL, Coates BP, Acworth RI (1997) Tides, waves and the super-elevation of groundwater at the coast. J Coastal Res 13(1):45–60

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Environment Programme (2006) The potential impact of sea-level rise on Bangladesh: potential impacts of climate change. UNEP. Accessed 25 Jan 2007

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Loon AF (2015) Hydrological drought explained. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Water 2(4):359–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Voris HK (2000) Maps of Pleistocene sea levels in Southeast Asia: shorelines, river systems and time durations. J Biogeogr 27:1153–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watkins MM, Wiese DN, Yuan DN, Boening C, Landerer FW (2015) Improved methods for observing Earth’s time-variable mass distribution with GRACE using spherical cap mascons. J Geophys Res Solid Earth 120:2648–2671

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Werner AD, Simmons CT (2009) Impact of sea-level rise on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Ground Water 47(2):197–204

    Google Scholar 

  • Werner AD, Habermehl MA, Laity T (2008) Seawater intrusion in Australia – a national perspective of future challenges. In: Proceedings, 2nd international salinity forum salinity, water and society – global issues, local action, 31 March–3 April 2008, Adelaide, South Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Werner AD, Ward JD, Morgan LK, Simmons CT, Robinson NI, Teubner MD (2012) Vulnerability indicators of seawater intrusion. Ground Water 50:48–58

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Werner AD, Bakker M, Post VEA, Vandenbohede A, Lu C (2013) Seawater intrusion processes, investigation and management: Recent advances and future challenges. Elsevier Adv Water Resour 51:3–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiese DN, Yuan DN, Boening C, Landerer FW, Watkins MM (2019) JPL GRACE and GRACE-FO Mascon Ocean, Ice, and Hydrology Equivalent water Height RL06M CRI Filtered Version 2.0, Ver. 2.0, PO.DAAC, CA, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Willis JK, Church JA (2012) Regional sea-level projection. Science 336:550–551

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Heflin MB, Schotman H, Vermeersen BLA, Dong D, Gross RS, Ivins ER, Moore AW, Owen SE (2010) Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment. Nat Geosci 3(9):642–646

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zeru G, Alamirew T, Shishaye HA, Olmana M, Tadesse N, Reading MJ (2020) Groundwater level trend analysis using the statistical auto-regressive HARTT method. Hydrol Res Lett 14(1):17–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Southern Cross Geoscience, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW, Australia

    Haile Arefayne Shishaye

Authors
  1. Haile Arefayne Shishaye
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. FTZ-ALS, HAW Hamburg, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Walter Leal Filho

  2. School of Social Sciences, CHC Higher Education, Carindale, Australia

    Johannes Luetz

  3. Center for Food Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Desalegn Ayal

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this entry

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this entry

Shishaye, H.A. (2021). Fate of Coastal Aquifers under the Changing Climate and Hydrologic Extremes: Review and Modeling Scenarios. In: Leal Filho, W., Luetz, J., Ayal, D. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22759-3_258-1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22759-3_258-1

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-22759-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-22759-3

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Earth and Environm. ScienceReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Earth and Environmental Sciences

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation