Abstract
A probabilistic method is proposed to assess the efficiency of warning systems in terms of costs and risk reduction. This evaluation is based both on the quality of the signal and the human response to warnings. The quality of the signal is described by probabilities of correct warnings, Type I errors, and Type II errors. Human response depend on the memory that people have kept of past warnings and is described here by a Markov model. On our hypothetical example concerning a fume detector in a chemical plant, the results show that the optimum sensitivity is at an intermediate position between extreme levels.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Pate, M. Elisabeth, Risk-Benefit Analysis for Construction of New Dam Sensitivity Study and Real Case Applications. Research Report #R81–26. Department of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, July 1981.
Pate, M. Elisabeth, and Haresh C. Shah, “Public Policy Issues: Earthquake Prediction. ” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 69, No. 5, October 1979, pp. 1533 – 1547.
Pate, M. Elisabeth, “Analysis of Warning Systems: Application to Earthquake Prediction.” Earthquake Prediction Research 1. Tokyo, Japan: Terra Scientific Publishing Company, 1982.
Benjamin, J. R., and C. A. Cornell, Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1970.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1985 Plenum Press, New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pate-Cornell, M.E. (1985). Warning Systems and Risk Reduction. In: Whipple, C., Covello, V.T. (eds) Risk Analysis in the Private Sector. Advances in Risk Analysis, vol 220. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2465-2_36
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-2465-2_36
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4612-9496-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-4613-2465-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive