Alternative Futures for Monroe County, Pennsylvania: A Case Study in Applying Ecological Principles

Abstract

Several years before the Ecological Society of America’s principles and guidelines were published, Monroe County, Pennsylvania, was the subject of a study conducted by researchers from the Harvard University Graduate School of Design in collaboration with representatives of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the county government. That study analyzed the trends of growth in Monroe County, determined the possible effects of that growth, and provided some insight into how that growth might best be managed. The study was conducted from a planning perspective and an ecological perspective, but it reflected a number of ecological concerns. It identified six key issues (geologic landscape, biologic landscape, visual landscape, demographics, economics, and politics) as necessary points of discussion, decision, and action. The research derived six alternative futures for a time 25 years hence. These alternative futures were determined by modeling the results of (1) following the county’s comprehensive plan, (2) allowing development to be market-driven, (3) pursuing the strategic development of each township, (4) adopting a policy of land conservation with an emphasis on outdoor recreational opportunities, (5) concentrating new development in a corridor served by public transportation, and (6) conserving all existing undeveloped land. These six possible patterns of future land use reflected a spectrum of natural resource uses over a broad area. Models of the six selected processes of growth and development produced maps of expected development outcomes, allowing the citizens to visualize the consequences of such changes and to progress through a series of decisions in an informed manner.